Sport Picks
Baia de Pemba vs Ferroviario Maputo
Mozambique
Mocambola 2025 
Match Events
30'
30'
Telinho
45'
45'
Gabriel W.
51'
51'
Parkim L.
AI Match Summary
Baia de Pemba in this Mocambola 2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Baia de Pemba.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
45%
35%
20%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Baia de Pemba
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Attack-wise there's a gap: Baia de Pemba at 0.77 per game, Ferroviario Maputo at 0.74.
- 45% — that's where the model lands on Baia de Pemba taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60.6%
Baia de Pemba Clean Sheet 20%
Ferroviario Maputo Clean Sheet 20%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Baia de Pemba | Ferroviario Maputo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 26 | 27 |
| Wins | 8 | 8 |
| Draws | 9 | 7 |
| Losses | 9 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.85 | 0.81 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 6, 2026 Mocambola
Ferroviario Maputo vs Baia de Pemba
0:0
Nov 28, 2025 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Ferroviario Maputo
3:2
Aug 2, 2025 Mocambola
Ferroviario Maputo vs Baia de Pemba
0:0
Aug 24, 2024 Mocambola
Ferroviario Maputo vs Baia de Pemba
1:0
May 5, 2024 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Ferroviario Maputo
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Baia de Pemba Compare
Top Goalscorer Gabriel W.
1 Goals Assists Leader Parkim L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32
Ferroviario Maputo Compare
Top Goalscorer Telinho
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Baia de Pemba 58 / 100
Ferroviario Maputo 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Baia de Pemba Ferroviario Maputo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Baia de Pemba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Solid form: Baia de Pemba remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Baia de Pemba found the back of the net in 46% of recent matches (26 games).
Ferroviario Maputo has conceded goals in 56% of their last 27 outings.
These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Baia de Pemba VS Ferroviario Maputo
0.5 Goals Scored 0.88
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
25% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Baia de Pemba
(Home) 02 Sept
Baia de Pemba
2 : 1 Ferroviario Lichinga
25 Aug
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0 Ferroviario Nacala
22 Aug
Baia de Pemba
0 : 0 Ferroviario Nampula
19 Aug
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0 Costa do Sol
14 Aug
Baia de Pemba
0 : 0 Maxaquene
Page 1 of 6
02 Sept
Baia de Pemba
2 : 1 Ferroviario Lichinga
25 Aug
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0 Ferroviario Nacala
22 Aug
Baia de Pemba
0 : 0 Ferroviario Nampula
19 Aug
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0 Costa do Sol
14 Aug
Baia de Pemba
0 : 0 Maxaquene
Page 1 of 3
Ferroviario Maputo
(Away) 02 Sept
Ferroviario Maputo
0 : 0 UD Songo
30 Aug
Ferroviario Maputo
1 : 0 Chingale de Tete
25 Aug
Maxaquene
2 : 2 Ferroviario Maputo
22 Aug
Ferroviario Maputo
0 : 1 Costa do Sol
18 Aug
Ferroviario Nampula
2 : 1 Ferroviario Maputo
Page 1 of 6
25 Aug
Maxaquene
2 : 2 Ferroviario Maputo
18 Aug
Ferroviario Nampula
2 : 1 Ferroviario Maputo
14 Aug
Ferroviario Nacala
1 : 0 Ferroviario Maputo
25 Jun
ENH Vilankulo
0 : 0 Ferroviario Maputo
22 May
UD Songo
2 : 0 Ferroviario Maputo
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD Songo | 22 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 50:13 | 57 |
| 2 | Associacao Black Bulls | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 35:26 | 39 |
| 3 | Ferroviario Beira | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 19:13 | 37 |
| 4 | Ferroviario Lichinga | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 38:31 | 34 |
| 5 | Ferroviario Maputo | 23 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 25:18 | 33 |
| 6 | Baia de Pemba | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 24:21 | 32 |
| 7 | ENH Vilankulo | 24 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 22:21 | 31 |
| 8 | Costa do Sol | 23 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 18:18 | 31 |
| 9 | Ferroviario Nacala | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 16:17 | 31 |
| 10 | Chingale de Tete | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 22:21 | 27 |
| 11 | Ferroviario Nampula | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 21:29 | 26 |
| 12 | Textafrica | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 15:30 | 20 |
| 13 | Desportivo de Nacala | 20 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 13:31 | 12 |
| 14 | Desportivo Matola | 22 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 11:40 | 10 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
