Sport Picks
Baia de Pemba vs Ferroviario Nacala - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mozambique
Mocambola 
AI Match Summary
Baia de Pemba in this Mocambola matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Baia de Pemba.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
20%
33%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Baia de Pemba
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Ferroviario Nacala have won more games recently than Baia de Pemba.
- Model gives Baia de Pemba a 47% chance of winning this.
- Regular Mocambola form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Baia de Pemba Clean Sheet 20%
Ferroviario Nacala Clean Sheet 19%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Baia de Pemba | Ferroviario Nacala |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 27 |
| Wins | 9 | 11 |
| Draws | 9 | 6 |
| Losses | 9 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.78 | 0.7 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.75 | 0.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 25, 2026 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Ferroviario Nacala
1:0
May 14, 2026 Mocambola
Ferroviario Nacala vs Baia de Pemba
1:0
Sep 23, 2025 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Ferroviario Nacala
3:0
Jul 5, 2025 Mocambola
Ferroviario Nacala vs Baia de Pemba
1:0
Aug 19, 2023 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Ferroviario Nacala
1:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Baia de Pemba 49 / 100
Ferroviario Nacala 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Baia de Pemba Ferroviario Nacala
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Baia de Pemba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Baia de Pemba went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Baia de Pemba found the back of the net in 44% of recent matches (27 games).
Ferroviario Nacala let in goals in 48% of their last 27 matches.
H2H data points to 1.40 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Baia de Pemba VS Ferroviario Nacala
0.5 Goals Scored 0.13
0.25 Goals Conceded 1
13% Over 1.5 13%
13% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Baia de Pemba
(Home) 10 Oct
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0 UD Songo
13 Sept
ENH Vilankulo
2 : 0 Baia de Pemba
02 Sept
Baia de Pemba
2 : 1 Ferroviario Lichinga
25 Aug
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0 Ferroviario Nacala
22 Aug
Baia de Pemba
0 : 0 Ferroviario Nampula
Page 1 of 6
10 Oct
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0 UD Songo
02 Sept
Baia de Pemba
2 : 1 Ferroviario Lichinga
25 Aug
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0 Ferroviario Nacala
22 Aug
Baia de Pemba
0 : 0 Ferroviario Nampula
19 Aug
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0 Costa do Sol
Page 1 of 3
Ferroviario Nacala
(Away) 10 Oct
Ferroviario Nacala
3 : 2 Sofala
16 Sept
Ferroviario Lichinga
0 : 0 Ferroviario Nacala
02 Sept
Ferroviario Nacala
1 : 0 ENH Vilankulo
25 Aug
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0 Ferroviario Nacala
21 Aug
AD Pemba
1 : 0 Ferroviario Nacala
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Ferroviario Lichinga
0 : 0 Ferroviario Nacala
25 Aug
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0 Ferroviario Nacala
21 Aug
AD Pemba
1 : 0 Ferroviario Nacala
10 Aug
Maxaquene
1 : 0 Ferroviario Nacala
05 Aug
Costa do Sol
3 : 0 Ferroviario Nacala
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Associacao Black Bulls | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 28:9 | 44 |
| 2 | Costa do Sol | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 28:12 | 40 |
| 3 | Ferroviario Beira | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 23:15 | 34 |
| 4 | Ferroviario Nampula | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 21:21 | 31 |
| 5 | Ferroviario Maputo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 15:11 | 29 |
| 6 | UD Songo | 20 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 21:16 | 28 |
| 7 | Ferroviario Lichinga | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 16:15 | 28 |
| 8 | Ferroviario Nacala | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 11:14 | 23 |
| 9 | Baia de Pemba | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 10:12 | 22 |
| 10 | ENH Vilankulo | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 19:17 | 20 |
| 11 | AD Pemba | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 10:19 | 20 |
| 12 | Sofala | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 10:22 | 18 |
| 13 | Chingale de Tete | 20 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 5:18 | 12 |
| 14 | Maxaquene | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 8:24 | 10 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
