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Baku Sporting vs Sahdag Qusar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa
Wed, Nov 25, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Baku Sporting host Sahdag Qusar in the I Liqa. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Baku Sporting at 1.13 goals for, 1.23 against; Sahdag Qusar at 1.83 for, 0.76 against. Past meetings favor Baku Sporting slightly — 2-0-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 22, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (0.69 - 1.88) back Sahdag Qusar to edge this. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Baku Sporting
15%
Draws
78%
Sahdag Qusar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sahdag Qusar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / Very High Confidence
  • Sahdag Qusar have won more games recently than Baku Sporting.
  • 78% — that's where the model lands on Sahdag Qusar taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Baku Sporting here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Baku Sporting Clean Sheet 10%
Sahdag Qusar Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baku Sporting Sahdag Qusar
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 16
Draws 8 6
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 1.13 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.23 0.76
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 I Liqa
Sahdag Qusar vs Baku Sporting
1:1
Dec 10, 2025 I Liqa
Baku Sporting vs Sahdag Qusar
2:1
Sep 18, 2025 I Liqa
Sahdag Qusar vs Baku Sporting
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baku Sporting 10 / 100
Sahdag Qusar 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baku Sporting Sahdag Qusar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sahdag Qusar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.33 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Baku Sporting scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Sahdag Qusar conceded in 52% of 29 recent games.

Baku Sporting has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Baku Sporting VS Sahdag Qusar
1 Goals Scored 1.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.38
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Baku Sporting

(Home)
05 Nov
Baku Sporting
1 : 1
FC Khankendi
28 Oct
Kapaz
3 : 1
Baku Sporting
22 Oct
Shimal
5 : 2
Baku Sporting
16 Oct
Baku Sporting
1 : 3
MOIK Baku
10 Oct
Gancabasar
2 : 0
Baku Sporting
Page 1 of 6

Sahdag Qusar

(Away)
28 Oct
MOIK Baku
1 : 9
Sahdag Qusar
21 Oct
Sahdag Qusar
1 : 0
Sabail
15 Oct
FC Khankendi
1 : 0
Sahdag Qusar
07 Oct
Sahdag Qusar
6 : 0
Zaqatala PFK
17 Sept
Shimal
1 : 4
Sahdag Qusar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gancabasar 7 5 1 1 19:6 16
2 Sahdag Qusar 6 5 0 1 14:2 15
3 MOIK Baku 7 4 2 1 13:5 14
4 Karvan 7 4 1 2 14:8 13
5 Sabail 7 3 3 1 10:7 12
6 Shimal 7 2 2 3 14:15 8
7 FC Khankendi 7 1 3 3 5:8 6
8 Zaqatala PFK 7 1 2 4 7:22 5
9 Mingachevir 6 1 1 4 5:14 4
10 Baku Sporting 7 0 1 6 4:18 1
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa (Relegation)