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Baku Sporting vs Zaqatala PFK - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa
Wed, Dec 9, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Baku Sporting host Zaqatala PFK in the I Liqa. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Recent numbers: Baku Sporting at 1.13 goals for, 1.23 against; Zaqatala PFK at 0.97 for, 2.03 against. Past meetings favor Baku Sporting slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 10, 2026, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 1.81 vs 1.44, favoring Baku Sporting. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Baku Sporting
20%
Draws
40%
Zaqatala PFK
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Baku Sporting lately — more wins on the board than Zaqatala PFK.
  • Baku Sporting are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Baku Sporting Clean Sheet 16%
Zaqatala PFK Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baku Sporting Zaqatala PFK
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 7
Draws 8 5
Losses 11 18
Goals Scored 1.13 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.23 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 10, 2026 I Liqa
Zaqatala PFK vs Baku Sporting
3:0
May 15, 2026 I Liqa
Baku Sporting vs Zaqatala PFK
3:0
Dec 24, 2025 I Liqa
Baku Sporting vs Zaqatala PFK
2:1
Oct 2, 2025 I Liqa
Zaqatala PFK vs Baku Sporting
1:1
Apr 10, 2025 I Liqa
Zaqatala PFK vs Baku Sporting
6:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baku Sporting 84 / 100
Zaqatala PFK 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baku Sporting Zaqatala PFK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Baku Sporting Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Zaqatala PFK conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Baku Sporting scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Difficult form: Zaqatala PFK registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Baku Sporting VS Zaqatala PFK
1 Goals Scored 1
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Baku Sporting

(Home)
05 Nov
Baku Sporting
1 : 1
FC Khankendi
28 Oct
Kapaz
3 : 1
Baku Sporting
22 Oct
Shimal
5 : 2
Baku Sporting
16 Oct
Baku Sporting
1 : 3
MOIK Baku
10 Oct
Gancabasar
2 : 0
Baku Sporting
Page 1 of 6

Zaqatala PFK

(Away)
05 Nov
Zaqatala PFK
1 : 1
MOIK Baku
27 Oct
Marafon
1 : 0
Zaqatala PFK
22 Oct
Gancabasar
7 : 0
Zaqatala PFK
15 Oct
Zaqatala PFK
1 : 3
Sabail
07 Oct
Sahdag Qusar
6 : 0
Zaqatala PFK
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gancabasar 6 5 0 1 17:4 15
2 Sahdag Qusar 6 5 0 1 14:2 15
3 MOIK Baku 6 4 1 1 12:4 13
4 Sabail 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
5 Karvan 6 3 1 2 10:7 10
6 Shimal 6 2 2 2 13:11 8
7 FC Khankendi 6 1 2 3 4:7 5
8 Mingachevir 6 1 1 4 5:14 4
9 Zaqatala PFK 6 1 1 4 6:21 4
10 Baku Sporting 6 0 0 6 3:17 0
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa (Relegation)