Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Bala vs Newtown

Wales Wales

Cymru North
Our Tip

Match Events

70' Event
Harries J.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru North game between Bala and Newtown finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Newtown.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Bala
15%
Draws
50%
Newtown
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Newtown

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Newtown carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Newtown are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Cymru North form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Bala Clean Sheet 12%
Newtown Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bala Newtown
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 15
Draws 5 3
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1.28 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 31, 2026 Cymru North
Bala vs Newtown
0:1
Sep 10, 2025 League Cup
Newtown vs Bala
2:1
Nov 2, 2024 Cymru Premier
Newtown vs Bala
0:0
Sep 20, 2024 Cymru Premier
Bala vs Newtown
2:2
Apr 5, 2024 Cymru Premier
Bala vs Newtown
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bala Compare

Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Newtown Compare

Top Goalscorer Harries J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bala 27 / 100
Newtown 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bala Newtown

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newtown Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Bala scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Newtown's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Bala stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bala VS Newtown
2 Goals Scored 2.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Bala

(Home)
11 Sept
Denbigh
5 : 2
Bala
05 Sept
Porthmadog
1 : 2
Bala
31 Aug
Bala
0 : 1
Newtown
28 Aug
Rhyl
1 : 3
Bala
21 Aug
Bala
3 : 0
Gresford
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Newtown

(Away)
12 Sept
Holyhead
0 : 1
Newtown
05 Sept
Newtown
1 : 0
Denbigh
31 Aug
Bala
0 : 1
Newtown
28 Aug
Newtown
4 : 0
Llanuwchllyn
15 Aug
Newtown
1 : 1
Guilsfield
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brickfield Rangers 7 6 0 1 19:4 18
2 Newtown 6 5 1 0 15:1 16
3 Mold Alexandra 7 5 1 1 17:7 16
4 Bala 7 5 0 2 14:10 15
5 Bangor 1876 7 4 1 2 16:10 13
6 Caersws FC 6 4 1 1 13:7 13
7 Porthmadog 7 3 2 2 12:11 11
8 Guilsfield 7 2 3 2 12:11 9
9 Llanuwchllyn 6 3 0 3 9:15 9
10 Rhyl 6 2 2 2 11:10 8
11 Buckley 7 2 1 4 12:11 7
12 Denbigh 8 2 1 5 16:17 7
13 Holyhead 6 1 1 4 7:13 4
14 Ruthin Town 7 1 1 5 6:16 4
15 Penrhyncoch 6 0 1 5 3:21 1
16 Gresford 6 0 0 6 1:19 0
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)