Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ballymena vs Portadown

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

NIFL Premiership Ballymena Showgrounds, Ballymena
Sat, Sep 26, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ballymena host Portadown in the NIFL Premiership. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Recent numbers: Ballymena at 1.83 goals for, 1.31 against; Portadown at 1.48 for, 1.72 against. Head-to-head, Ballymena have won 1 to Portadown's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 18, 2026, ending 1:2. Model xG sits at 1.63 vs 1.94, favoring Ballymena. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Ballymena
35%
Draws
16%
Portadown
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ballymena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ballymena come out ahead of Portadown on wins alone.
  • Ballymena are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular NIFL Premiership form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Ballymena Clean Sheet 10%
Portadown Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ballymena Portadown
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 11 6
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 1.83 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Ballymena vs Portadown
1:2
Mar 7, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Ballymena vs Portadown
1:1
Dec 13, 2025 NIFL Premiership
Portadown vs Ballymena
1:0
Aug 19, 2025 NIFL Premiership
Portadown vs Ballymena
0:2
Apr 26, 2025 NIFL Premiership
Portadown vs Ballymena
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ballymena 74 / 100
Portadown 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ballymena Portadown

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ballymena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ballymena scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Portadown conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Ballymena has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ballymena VS Portadown
1.5 Goals Scored 2.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ballymena

(Home)
19 Sept
Dungannon
1 : 1
Ballymena
15 Sept
Ballymena
1 : 1
Carrick Rangers
11 Sept
Coleraine
3 : 2
Ballymena
05 Sept
Bangor FC
2 : 2
Ballymena
21 Aug
Ballymena
0 : 2
Glentoran
Page 1 of 6

Portadown

(Away)
19 Sept
Bangor FC
3 : 1
Portadown
15 Sept
Portadown
1 : 1
Linfield
12 Sept
Portadown
0 : 2
Larne
05 Sept
Cliftonville
3 : 1
Portadown
28 Aug
Portadown
0 : 3
Coleraine
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Coleraine 8 7 1 0 18:5 22
2 Linfield 8 6 1 1 9:5 19
3 Larne 6 5 1 0 12:3 16
4 Dungannon 8 4 1 3 9:8 13
5 Cliftonville 8 4 0 4 12:10 12
6 Crusaders 8 4 0 4 13:13 12
7 Glentoran 8 3 1 4 11:10 10
8 Carrick Rangers 8 3 1 4 11:13 10
9 Ballymena 7 1 3 3 10:11 6
10 Limavady 7 2 0 5 6:11 6
11 Bangor FC 8 1 2 5 7:17 5
12 Portadown 8 0 1 7 5:17 1
Promotion - NIFL Premiership (Championship Group)
Relegation - NIFL Premiership (Relegation Group)