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Baltika vs Zenit St Petersburg

Russia Russia

Russian Cup 2025/2026 Rostec Arena
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Baltika play Zenit St Petersburg in the Russian Cup 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Baltika averaged 1.24 goals scored and 0.76 conceded. Zenit St Petersburg averaged 1.78 goals scored and 0.59 conceded. In past meetings, Baltika won 1, Zenit St Petersburg won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 3, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.69 for Baltika and 1.38 for Zenit St Petersburg. This points to a Zenit St Petersburg double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Baltika
21%
Draws
48%
Zenit St Petersburg
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Zenit St Petersburg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Baltika picked up more points recently compared to Zenit St Petersburg.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.69 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 57%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Baltika Clean Sheet 17%
Zenit St Petersburg Clean Sheet 20%
First Half Goal 51%
Second Half Goal 54%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baltika Zenit St Petersburg
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 12 21
Draws 10 2
Losses 7 4
Goals Scored 1.24 1.78
Goals Conceded 0.76 0.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 3, 2026 Russian Cup
Baltika vs Zenit St Petersburg
0:1
Feb 27, 2026 Premier League
Zenit St Petersburg vs Baltika
1:0
Sep 14, 2025 Premier League
Baltika vs Zenit St Petersburg
0:0
Jul 6, 2025 Club Friendly
Zenit St Petersburg vs Baltika
1:2
Jun 2, 2024 Russian Cup
Baltika vs Zenit St Petersburg
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Baltika Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Zenit St Petersburg Compare

Top Goalscorer Sobolev A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baltika 31 / 100
Zenit St Petersburg 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baltika Zenit St Petersburg

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Zenit St Petersburg or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.9%
3.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Baltika attacking → ← attacking Zenit St Petersburg

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Baltika scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Zenit St Petersburg let in goals in 41% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Baltika went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Zenit St Petersburg lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 65
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.38