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Bangladesh vs Nepal Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Friendly International 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Chand R.
40'
46'

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2025 game between Bangladesh and Nepal finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Bangladesh
15%
Draws
21%
Nepal
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bangladesh

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

21% / Low Confidence
  • Bangladesh carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Nepal's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Bangladesh Clean Sheet 26%
Nepal Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bangladesh Nepal
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 6 5
Draws 7 6
Losses 15 17
Goals Scored 0.75 0.61
Goals Conceded 1.96 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 13, 2025 Friendly International
Bangladesh vs Nepal
2:2
Sep 9, 2025 Friendly International
Nepal vs Bangladesh
0:0
Sep 6, 2025 Friendly International
Nepal vs Bangladesh
0:0
Sep 27, 2022 Friendly International
Bangladesh vs Nepal
1:3
Oct 13, 2021 SAFF Championship
Bangladesh vs Nepal
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bangladesh Compare

Top Goalscorer Choudhury H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Nepal Compare

Top Goalscorer Chand R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tamang A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bangladesh 13 / 100
Nepal 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bangladesh Nepal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nepal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nepal has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Difficult form: Nepal registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Bangladesh found the back of the net in 46% of recent matches (28 games).

Scoring Trends

Bangladesh VS Nepal
1 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Bangladesh

(Home)
01 Oct
Indonesia
9 : 2
Bangladesh
28 Sept
Singapore
1 : 0
Bangladesh
25 Sept
Bangladesh
0 : 3
Malaysia
05 Jun
San Marino
1 : 2
Bangladesh
31 Mar
Singapore
1 : 0
Bangladesh
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Nepal

(Away)
31 Mar
Nepal
0 : 1
Laos
18 Nov
Nepal
0 : 1
Malaysia
13 Nov
Bangladesh
2 : 2
Nepal
14 Oct
Nepal
0 : 1
Vietnam
09 Oct
Vietnam
3 : 1
Nepal
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