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Bangu vs CEAC/Araruama

Brazil Brazil

Carioca 2 2025 Estadio Proletario Guilherme da Silveira Filho (Moca Bonita), Rio de Janeiro
Our Tip

Match Events

61' Event
Bere

AI Match Summary

Bangu in this Carioca 2 2025 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Bangu
30%
Draws
41%
CEAC/Araruama
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: CEAC/Araruama

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • CEAC/Araruama haven't matched Bangu's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Bangu have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Bangu, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Bangu have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Bangu Clean Sheet 20%
CEAC/Araruama Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bangu CEAC/Araruama
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 12 10
Draws 9 8
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.86 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.27 1.20
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2025 Carioca 2
Bangu vs CEAC/Araruama
1:0
Aug 3, 2025 Carioca 2
CEAC/Araruama vs Bangu
0:0
Jun 8, 2025 Carioca 2
CEAC/Araruama vs Bangu
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bangu Compare

Top Goalscorer Bere
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.98
Avg xA / game 0.64

CEAC/Araruama Compare

Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.67

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bangu 36 / 100
CEAC/Araruama 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bangu CEAC/Araruama

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CEAC/Araruama Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bangu scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: CEAC/Araruama conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Bangu stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 0.67 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Bangu VS CEAC/Araruama
0.8 Goals Scored 1
1.4 Goals Conceded 1.75
80% Over 1.5 75%
20% Over 2.5 63%
20% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Bangu

(Home)
22 Jul
Bangu
1 : 1
Olaria
15 Jul
Olaria
2 : 0
Bangu
07 Mar
Botafogo RJ
3 : 1
Bangu
27 Feb
Volta Redonda
1 : 1
Bangu
20 Feb
Bangu
1 : 0
Volta Redonda
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CEAC/Araruama

(Away)
22 Jul
Boavista
4 : 0
CEAC/Araruama
15 Jul
CEAC/Araruama
0 : 1
Boavista
08 Jul
CEAC/Araruama
2 : 1
Sao Cristovao
04 Jul
CEAC/Araruama
1 : 1
Cabofriense
27 Jun
CEAC/Araruama
1 : 0
Olaria
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Sao Goncalo 3
Olaria 0
Bangu 1
CEAC/Araruama 0
Final
Sao Goncalo 1
Bangu 3