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Bangu vs Madureira

Brazil Brazil

Carioca Estadio Proletario Guilherme da Silveira Filho (Moca Bonita), Rio de Janeiro
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Garrinsha
46'
Sub
Lucas Sibito In: Douglas Lima
Out: Lucas Sibito
46'
Sub
Vinicius Balotelli In: Filipe Claudino
Out: Vinicius Balotelli

AI Match Summary

The Carioca game between Bangu and Madureira finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Madureira.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Bangu
35%
Draws
40%
Madureira
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Madureira

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Bangu carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Madureira a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Bangu Clean Sheet 19%
Madureira Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bangu Madureira
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 12 10
Draws 9 7
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1 1
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2026 Carioca
Bangu vs Madureira
0:1
Feb 15, 2025 Carioca
Bangu vs Madureira
0:3
Feb 25, 2024 Carioca
Bangu vs Madureira
2:1
Feb 5, 2023 Carioca
Bangu vs Madureira
1:0
Feb 9, 2022 Carioca
Bangu vs Madureira
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bangu Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Madureira Compare

Top Goalscorer Filipe Claudino
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bangu 28 / 100
Madureira 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bangu Madureira

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Madureira Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bangu scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Madureira has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Bangu remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Bangu VS Madureira
0.5 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Bangu

(Home)
22 Jul
Bangu
1 : 1
Olaria
15 Jul
Olaria
2 : 0
Bangu
07 Mar
Botafogo RJ
3 : 1
Bangu
27 Feb
Volta Redonda
1 : 1
Bangu
20 Feb
Bangu
1 : 0
Volta Redonda
Page 1 of 6

Madureira

(Away)
02 Sept
Madureira
0 : 0
Boavista
26 Aug
Boavista
2 : 0
Madureira
12 Aug
Madureira
1 : 1
Portuguesa RJ
05 Aug
Portuguesa RJ
0 : 1
Madureira
22 Jul
Madureira
2 : 1
Bonsucesso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Fluminense 6 5 0 1 9:5 15
2 Vasco 6 3 2 1 9:3 11
3 Volta Redonda 6 3 2 1 9:5 11
4 Bangu 6 3 1 2 7:7 10
5 Portuguesa RJ 6 2 1 3 6:7 7
6 Sampaio Correa FE 6 2 1 3 7:14 7
Promotion - Carioca (Taca Guanabara - Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Botafogo RJ 6 3 0 3 6:5 9
2 Madureira 6 2 2 2 5:6 8
3 Boavista 6 2 2 2 6:8 8
4 Flamengo RJ 6 2 1 3 11:9 7
5 Nova Iguacu 6 1 2 3 8:9 5
6 Marica 6 1 0 5 5:10 3
Promotion - Carioca (Taca Guanabara - Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca (Relegation Group)