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Barakaldo vs AD Merida

Spain Spain

Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 Campo de Lasesarre, Barakaldo
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Sub
Capitas M. In: Dibrani B.
Out: Capitas M.
33' Event
Arana M.
55'
Lancho J.

AI Match Summary

Barakaldo in this Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Barakaldo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Barakaldo
15%
Draws
20%
AD Merida
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Barakaldo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Barakaldo have won more games recently than AD Merida.
  • Win probability leans Barakaldo's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Barakaldo Clean Sheet 68%
AD Merida Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barakaldo AD Merida
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 13 9
Draws 6 8
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.43 1.1
Goals Conceded 1 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Barakaldo vs AD Merida
2:0
Aug 30, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
AD Merida vs Barakaldo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barakaldo Compare

Top Goalscorer Arana M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

AD Merida Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barakaldo 95 / 100
AD Merida 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barakaldo AD Merida

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BRK Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AD Merida let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Barakaldo found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Recent resilience: Barakaldo stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Barakaldo VS AD Merida
1.63 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Barakaldo

(Home)
01 Aug
Barakaldo
2 : 0
Mirandes
23 May
Barakaldo
1 : 1
Celta Vigo B
17 May
Real Aviles
1 : 4
Barakaldo
09 May
Barakaldo
2 : 0
AD Merida
01 May
Tenerife
2 : 0
Barakaldo
Page 1 of 6

AD Merida

(Away)
07 Aug
Leganes
3 : 0
AD Merida
01 Aug
AD Merida
2 : 3
Betis B
28 Jul
AD Merida
0 : 2
Al Nassr
25 Jul
Benfica B
4 : 0
AD Merida
23 May
Osasuna B
1 : 2
AD Merida
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tenerife 38 22 10 6 62:24 76
2 Celta Vigo B 38 18 11 9 61:48 65
3 Zamora 38 17 10 11 53:42 61
4 Ponferradina 38 17 9 12 43:33 60
5 Real Madrid B 38 16 10 12 61:52 58
6 Pontevedra 38 14 16 8 49:31 58
7 Barakaldo 38 15 13 10 51:38 58
8 Unionistas de Salamanca 38 15 11 12 53:49 56
9 Lugo 38 13 14 11 36:40 53
10 AD Merida 38 14 10 14 47:53 52
11 Arenas Getxo 38 15 7 16 46:55 52
12 Racing Club Ferrol 38 13 10 15 41:47 49
13 Ath Bilbao B 38 13 10 15 38:46 49
14 Real Aviles 38 11 11 16 55:67 44
15 Cacereno 38 10 14 14 42:49 44
16 CF Talavera 38 11 10 17 38:47 43
17 Ourense CF 38 10 13 15 44:47 43
18 Guadalajara 38 10 11 17 44:58 41
19 Osasuna B 38 10 10 18 28:42 40
20 Arenteiro 38 6 10 22 29:53 28
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)