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Barakaldo vs Lugo

Spain Spain

Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 Campo de Lasesarre, Barakaldo
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Huidobro J.
26'
Alba T.
46'
Sub
Haro P. In: Rodriguez Y.
Out: Haro P.

AI Match Summary

Barakaldo in this Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Barakaldo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Barakaldo
20%
Draws
61%
Lugo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lugo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Barakaldo have won more games recently than Lugo.
  • Model gives Lugo a 61% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Barakaldo Clean Sheet 19%
Lugo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barakaldo Lugo
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 13
Draws 6 8
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.34 1.14
Goals Conceded 0.93 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Barakaldo vs Lugo
3:0
Oct 31, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo vs Barakaldo
2:2
Mar 9, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Barakaldo vs Lugo
3:2
Sep 15, 2024 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo vs Barakaldo
0:0
Apr 25, 2010 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Lugo vs Barakaldo
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barakaldo Compare

Top Goalscorer Huidobro J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Perez E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Lugo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barakaldo 12 / 100
Lugo 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barakaldo Lugo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lugo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Barakaldo found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Lugo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Barakaldo stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Barakaldo VS Lugo
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Barakaldo

(Home)
19 Sept
Racing Club Ferrol
1 : 0
Barakaldo
11 Sept
Barakaldo
1 : 0
CD Extremadura
05 Sept
CD Coria
4 : 1
Barakaldo
30 Aug
Barakaldo
0 : 0
Leonesa
14 Aug
Portugalete
2 : 0
Barakaldo
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Lugo

(Away)
20 Sept
Zamora
1 : 2
Lugo
13 Sept
Lugo
1 : 0
CD Coria
04 Sept
Ponferradina
0 : 0
Lugo
30 Aug
Unionistas de Salamanca
1 : 3
Lugo
21 Aug
Lugo
1 : 0
Ourense CF
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tenerife 38 22 10 6 62:24 76
2 Celta Vigo B 38 18 11 9 61:48 65
3 Zamora 38 17 10 11 53:42 61
4 Ponferradina 38 17 9 12 43:33 60
5 Real Madrid B 38 16 10 12 61:52 58
6 Pontevedra 38 14 16 8 49:31 58
7 Barakaldo 38 15 13 10 51:38 58
8 Unionistas de Salamanca 38 15 11 12 53:49 56
9 Lugo 38 13 14 11 36:40 53
10 AD Merida 38 14 10 14 47:53 52
11 Arenas Getxo 38 15 7 16 46:55 52
12 Racing Club Ferrol 38 13 10 15 41:47 49
13 Ath Bilbao B 38 13 10 15 38:46 49
14 Real Aviles 38 11 11 16 55:67 44
15 Cacereno 38 10 14 14 42:49 44
16 CF Talavera 38 11 10 17 38:47 43
17 Ourense CF 38 10 13 15 44:47 43
18 Guadalajara 38 10 11 17 44:58 41
19 Osasuna B 38 10 10 18 28:42 40
20 Arenteiro 38 6 10 22 29:53 28
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)