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Barbados vs Saint Lucia

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Daren Sammy Cricket Ground, Gros Islet
Sat, Sep 26, 2026
VS
12:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Barbados host Saint Lucia in the CONCACAF Nations League. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Saint Lucia have shipped 1.79 goals a game lately, while Barbados have conceded 2.22 and scored 1.56. Head-to-head, Barbados have won 1 to Saint Lucia's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Jun 10, 2025, ending 2:1. The numbers (2.50 xG vs 1.31) point toward Saint Lucia. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Barbados
15%
Draws
42%
Saint Lucia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Barbados

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Saint Lucia lately — more wins on the board than Barbados.
  • Win probability leans Barbados's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular CONCACAF Nations League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Barbados Clean Sheet 18%
Saint Lucia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barbados Saint Lucia
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 8 12
Draws 5 3
Losses 19 14
Goals Scored 1.56 1.21
Goals Conceded 2.22 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 10, 2025 World Championship
Saint Lucia vs Barbados
2:1
Mar 6, 2019 Friendly International
Saint Lucia vs Barbados
0:2
Jul 3, 2017 Friendly International
Barbados vs Saint Lucia
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barbados 58 / 100
Saint Lucia 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barbados Saint Lucia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Barbados Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Saint Lucia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Barbados's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.33 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Saint Lucia registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Barbados VS Saint Lucia
1.88 Goals Scored 0.63
2 Goals Conceded 3.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Barbados

(Home)
29 Mar
Barbados
2 : 3
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
26 Mar
Saint Martin
3 : 1
Barbados
15 Nov
Barbados
0 : 3
Aruba
12 Nov
Barbados
3 : 2
Bonaire
10 Jun
Saint Lucia
2 : 1
Barbados
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Saint Lucia

(Away)
27 Mar
Azerbaijan
6 : 1
Saint Lucia
16 Nov
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
3 : 1
Saint Lucia
12 Nov
Cuba
3 : 0
Saint Lucia
10 Jun
Saint Lucia
2 : 1
Barbados
06 Jun
Curacao
4 : 0
Saint Lucia
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