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Bari vs Carrarese Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio San Nicola, Bari
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Match Events

42'
Illanes J.
45'
Bellomo N.
46'
Sub
Illanes J. In: Imperiale M.
Out: Illanes J.

AI Match Summary

Carrarese in this Serie B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Carrarese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Bari
20%
Draws
7%
Carrarese
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bari

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Bari have won more games recently than Carrarese.
  • Bari are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Bari Clean Sheet 68%
Carrarese Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bari Carrarese
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 7
Draws 5 8
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.17 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Serie B
Bari vs Carrarese
0:3
Jan 10, 2026 Serie B
Carrarese vs Bari
1:0
Mar 30, 2025 Serie B
Carrarese vs Bari
2:1
Oct 29, 2024 Serie B
Bari vs Carrarese
0:0
Jul 17, 2020 Serie C - Group A
Bari vs Carrarese
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bari Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Carrarese Compare

Top Goalscorer Rouhi J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Abiuso F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.4
Avg xA / game 0.24

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bari 95 / 100
Carrarese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bari Carrarese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bari Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bari's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Carrarese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Bari went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bari VS Carrarese
1.38 Goals Scored 0.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 25%
50% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Bari

(Home)
04 Oct
Salernitana
2 : 1
Bari
26 Sept
Bari
1 : 0
Cosenza
19 Sept
Sorrento
1 : 2
Bari
15 Sept
Bari
0 : 0
Potenza
11 Sept
Altamura
0 : 3
Bari
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Carrarese

(Away)
19 Sept
Carrarese
0 : 1
Benevento
12 Sept
Catanzaro
1 : 0
Carrarese
05 Sept
Carrarese
0 : 1
Empoli
29 Aug
Ascoli
1 : 1
Carrarese
22 Aug
Carrarese
1 : 2
Mantova
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)