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Bari vs Casarano

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group C Stadio San Nicola, Bari
Sat, Sep 5, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bari host Casarano in the Serie C - Group C. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Bari at 0.93 goals for, 1.23 against; Casarano at 1.4 for, 1.2 against. Head-to-head, Bari have won 1 to Casarano's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Aug 16, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.00 vs 1.50, favoring Casarano. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Bari
30%
Draws
19%
Casarano
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bari

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Casarano come out ahead of Bari on wins alone.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Bari taking it.
  • Regular Serie C - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Bari Clean Sheet 16%
Casarano Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bari Casarano
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 13
Draws 9 6
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 0.93 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Coppa Italia Serie C
Bari vs Casarano
1:0
Aug 4, 2025 Club Friendly
Bari vs Casarano
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bari 84 / 100
Casarano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bari Casarano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bari Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bari went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Casarano has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Casarano's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Bari VS Casarano
0.88 Goals Scored 2.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Bari

(Home)
16 Aug
Bari
1 : 0
Casarano
28 Jul
Lanciano
0 : 1
Bari
22 May
Sudtirol
0 : 0
Bari
15 May
Bari
0 : 0
Sudtirol
08 May
Catanzaro
2 : 3
Bari
Page 1 of 6

Casarano

(Away)
16 Aug
Bari
1 : 0
Casarano
20 May
Union Brescia
0 : 0
Casarano
17 May
Casarano
0 : 3
Union Brescia
13 May
Renate
0 : 3
Casarano
10 May
Casarano
0 : 2
Renate
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Potenza 1 1 0 0 4:1 3
2 Bari 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
3 Audace Cerignola 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
4 Picerno 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
5 Sorrento 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
6 Inter U23 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
7 Foggia 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
8 Altamura 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
9 Scafatese 1 0 1 0 3:3 1
10 Barletta 1 0 1 0 3:3 1
11 Giugliano 1 0 1 0 3:3 1
12 Casertana 1 0 1 0 3:3 1
13 A.C. Savoia 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
14 Salernitana 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
15 Catania 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
16 Monopoli 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
17 Cosenza 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
18 Casarano 1 0 0 1 1:4 0
19 Cavese 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
20 Crotone 1 0 0 1 0:1 -6
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)