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Barletta vs Sarnese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Mateus Castro
17' Event
Mateus Castro
48' Event
Di Cuonzo M.

AI Match Summary

Barletta in this Serie D - Group H matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Barletta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Barletta
28%
Draws
22%
Sarnese
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Barletta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Barletta lately — more wins on the board than Sarnese.
  • Model gives Barletta a 50% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Barletta Clean Sheet 68%
Sarnese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barletta Sarnese
Matches Played 33 31
Wins 21 8
Draws 8 13
Losses 4 10
Goals Scored 1.88 1.75
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Barletta vs Sarnese
3:2
Sep 20, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Sarnese vs Barletta
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barletta Compare

Top Goalscorer Mateus Castro
2 Goals
Assists Leader Di Cuonzo M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Sarnese Compare

Top Goalscorer La Monica G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Addessi S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barletta 59 / 100
Sarnese 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barletta Sarnese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Barletta found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (33 games).

Sarnese let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

Recent resilience: Barletta stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Barletta VS Sarnese
1.88 Goals Scored 1.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Barletta

(Home)
30 May
Vado
2 : 0
Barletta
24 May
Barletta
2 : 1
Vado
17 May
Scafatese
1 : 1
Barletta
10 May
Barletta
2 : 1
A.C. Savoia
03 May
A.C.D. Nardo
1 : 0
Barletta
Page 1 of 7

Sarnese

(Away)
30 Jul
Cavese
1 : 0
Sarnese
10 May
Sarnese
2 : 1
Pompei
03 May
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 2
Sarnese
26 Apr
Sarnese
2 : 2
Francavilla
19 Apr
Fidelis Andria
2 : 1
Sarnese
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Barletta342010454:2070
2Martina Calcio34188847:3062
3Citta di Fasano34188851:3562
4Paganese341771036:3258
5A.C.D. Nardo341413740:2755
6Gravina341671150:4055
7Afragolese3413101145:4649
8Fidelis Andria341391235:2848
9Virtus Francavilla3412121045:4048
10Real Normanna3410131127:2643
11Francavilla3411101339:3843
12Manfredonia3411101334:3943
13Sarnese349141151:4941
14SS Nola 1925341181542:5041
15Heraclea341081631:3938
16Pompei34971826:3834
17Ferrandina34791821:4330
18Acerrana34352620:7414
Promotion - Serie D - Group H (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H (Play Out)