Barnet in this EFL Trophy 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
Barnet
35%
Draws
36%
Cambridge Utd
Draw rate projection: 35%Favored: Cambridge Utd
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
Barnet have won more games recently than Cambridge Utd.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
Barnet have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Barnet, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals99%
Over 1.5 Goals94%
Over 2.5 Goals38%
Over 3.5 Goals22%
Over 4.5 Goals10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS)77%
Barnet Clean Sheet15%
Cambridge Utd Clean Sheet10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
Metric
Barnet
Cambridge Utd
Matches Played
29
29
Wins
16
13
Draws
9
12
Losses
4
4
Goals Scored
2.07
1.52
Goals Conceded
1.28
0.76
Expected Goals (xG)
1.94
1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)
1.10
1.40
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 8, 2026EFL Cup
Cambridge UtdvsBarnet
2:1
Mar 28, 2026League Two
BarnetvsCambridge Utd
1:0
Nov 15, 2025League Two
Cambridge UtdvsBarnet
0:0
Oct 21, 2025EFL Trophy
BarnetvsCambridge Utd
3:2
Jul 29, 2023Club Friendly
BarnetvsCambridge Utd
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Barnet Compare
Top GoalscorerNdlovu L.
1 Goals
Assists LeaderAssombalonga B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game1.49
Avg xA / game0.97
Cambridge Utd Compare
Top GoalscorerKachunga E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game1.42
Avg xA / game0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Barnet31 / 100
Cambridge Utd28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Barnet Cambridge Utd
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary PickDraw (X)
Secondary PickUnder 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score1:1
BTTS OutcomeYes (GG)
Over/Under PickUnder 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Barnet's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Barnet went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Cambridge Utd's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.
H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.