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Barra FC (Santa Catarina) vs Chapecoense-SC

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz
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Match Events

21' Event
Elvinho
24'
Elvinho
30' Event
Renan Bernabe

AI Match Summary

Barra FC (Santa Catarina) in this Catarinense matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Barra FC (Santa Catarina).

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
40%
Draws
29%
Chapecoense-SC
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Chapecoense-SC average 1.5 goals a game right now, well clear of Barra FC (Santa Catarina)'s 0.88.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Catarinense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Barra FC (Santa Catarina) Clean Sheet 68%
Chapecoense-SC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barra FC (Santa Catarina) Chapecoense-SC
Matches Played 30 35
Wins 11 11
Draws 8 9
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 0.88 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Catarinense
Chapecoense-SC vs Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
1:0
Mar 1, 2026 Catarinense
Barra FC (Santa Catarina) vs Chapecoense-SC
3:1
Feb 5, 2025 Catarinense
Barra FC (Santa Catarina) vs Chapecoense-SC
1:1
Oct 19, 2024 Copa Santa Catarina
Barra FC (Santa Catarina) vs Chapecoense-SC
1:2
Jan 31, 2024 Catarinense
Chapecoense-SC vs Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barra FC (Santa Catarina) Compare

Top Goalscorer Elvinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Renan Bernabe
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Chapecoense-SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Joao Vitor
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barra FC (Santa Catarina) 42 / 100
Chapecoense-SC 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barra FC (Santa Catarina) Chapecoense-SC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Chapecoense-SC conceded in 86% of 35 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Barra FC (Santa Catarina) scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Barra FC (Santa Catarina) stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Barra FC (Santa Catarina) VS Chapecoense-SC
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Concordia1
Brusque2
Criciuma1
Chapecoense-SC2
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)2
Santa Catarina1
Camboriu3
Avai2
Semi-finals
Brusque1
Chapecoense-SC3
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)4
Camboriu1
Final
Chapecoense-SC2
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)3