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Barra Mansa vs Paraty Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2 2025
Barra Mansa Logo

Barra Mansa

1 - 2
FT
Paraty Logo

Paraty

Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
de Conceicao Alves J. P.
43' Event
de Conceicao Alves J. P.
71' Event
Novaes V.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B2 2025 game between Barra Mansa and Paraty finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Paraty.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Barra Mansa
20%
Draws
0%
Paraty
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Barra Mansa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Paraty come out ahead of Barra Mansa on wins alone.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Barra Mansa taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Barra Mansa Clean Sheet 20%
Paraty Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barra Mansa Paraty
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 7 10
Draws 8 5
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 0.82 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 26, 2025 Carioca B2
Barra Mansa vs Paraty
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barra Mansa Compare

Top Goalscorer Novaes V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Paraty Compare

Top Goalscorer de Conceicao Alves J. P.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barra Mansa 58 / 100
Paraty 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barra Mansa Paraty

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Barra Mansa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paraty's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Paraty has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Barra Mansa has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Barra Mansa VS Paraty
0.63 Goals Scored 0.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Barra Mansa

(Home)
01 Oct
FC Rio de Janeiro
2 : 0
Barra Mansa
28 Sept
Barra Mansa
1 : 0
Buzios
20 Sept
Paduano EC
2 : 2
Barra Mansa
14 Sept
Barra Mansa
1 : 4
7 de Abril
06 Sept
Friburguense
0 : 0
Barra Mansa
Page 1 of 6

Paraty

(Away)
01 Oct
Buzios
3 : 2
Paraty
27 Sept
Paraty
0 : 3
Paduano EC
21 Sept
7 de Abril
1 : 0
Paraty
13 Sept
Paraty
1 : 4
Friburguense
06 Sept
Campos AA
2 : 1
Paraty
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santa Cruz RJ 8 7 1 0 14:3 22
2 Belford Roxo 8 5 1 2 17:8 16
3 Goytacaz 8 5 1 2 13:8 16
4 Macae 8 4 1 3 13:5 13
5 Serra Macaense 8 3 4 1 9:7 13
6 Paraty 8 2 2 4 9:10 8
7 7 de Abril 8 2 2 4 11:13 8
8 FC Rio de Janeiro 8 1 0 7 7:25 3
9 Barra Mansa 8 0 2 6 4:18 2
Promotion - Carioca B2 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C (Main)