Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Barra Mansa vs Paraty

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
de Conceicao Alves J. P.
43' Event
de Conceicao Alves J. P.
71' Event
Novaes V.

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B2 2025 game between Barra Mansa and Paraty finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Paraty.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Barra Mansa
44%
Draws
20%
Paraty
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Paraty come out ahead of Barra Mansa on wins alone.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Barra Mansa Clean Sheet 16%
Paraty Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barra Mansa Paraty
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 12
Draws 8 5
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 0.5 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 26, 2025 Carioca B2
Barra Mansa vs Paraty
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barra Mansa Compare

Top Goalscorer Novaes V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Paraty Compare

Top Goalscorer de Conceicao Alves J. P.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barra Mansa 36 / 100
Paraty 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barra Mansa Paraty

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paraty's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Barra Mansa has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Barra Mansa scored in 52% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Barra Mansa VS Paraty
0.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Barra Mansa

(Home)
23 Jul
Barra Mansa
0 : 2
Buzios
19 Jul
Buzios
3 : 0
Barra Mansa
12 Jul
Barra Mansa
0 : 0
Uni Souza
07 Jul
Uni Souza
0 : 0
Barra Mansa
03 Jul
Barra Mansa
2 : 2
Cardoso Moreira
Page 1 of 6

Paraty

(Away)
09 Nov
Goytacaz
3 : 2
Paraty
06 Nov
Paraty
0 : 1
Santa Cruz RJ
26 Oct
Barra Mansa
1 : 2
Paraty
20 Oct
Paraty
1 : 1
7 de Abril
12 Oct
Serra Macaense
2 : 2
Paraty
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Santa Cruz RJ871014:322
2Belford Roxo851217:816
3Goytacaz851213:816
4Macae841313:513
5Serra Macaense83419:713
6Paraty82249:108
77 de Abril822411:138
8FC Rio de Janeiro81077:253
9Barra Mansa80264:182
Promotion - Carioca B2 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C (Main)