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Barra SE vs Carmopolis

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

47' Event
Felipe Cardoso
62' Event
Ronaldo
71' Event
Felipe Cardoso

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano 2025 game between Barra SE and Carmopolis finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Barra SE.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Barra SE
20%
Draws
20%
Carmopolis
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Barra SE

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Barra SE come out ahead of Carmopolis on wins alone.
  • Model gives Carmopolis a 20% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Sergipano 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Barra SE Clean Sheet 14%
Carmopolis Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barra SE Carmopolis
Matches Played 26 20
Wins 11 3
Draws 6 5
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.5 1
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 3, 2025 Sergipano
Barra SE vs Carmopolis
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barra SE Compare

Top Goalscorer Ronaldo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Helber
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Carmopolis Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipe Cardoso
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barra SE 23 / 100
Carmopolis 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barra SE Carmopolis

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Carmopolis Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Barra SE's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Carmopolis let in goals in 75% of their last 20 matches.

Difficult form: Carmopolis registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Barra SE VS Carmopolis
1 Goals Scored 1.13
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Barra SE

(Home)
01 Mar
Itabaiana
4 : 2
Barra SE
22 Feb
Barra SE
0 : 2
Dorense
15 Feb
Confianca
8 : 1
Barra SE
09 Feb
Barra SE
1 : 0
America de Propria
03 Feb
Barra SE
3 : 2
Carmopolis
Page 1 of 6

Carmopolis

(Away)
01 Mar
Guarany SE
2 : 1
Carmopolis
22 Feb
Carmopolis
1 : 1
Lagarto
15 Feb
Carmopolis
1 : 1
America de Propria
10 Feb
Falcon
3 : 2
Carmopolis
03 Feb
Barra SE
3 : 2
Carmopolis
Page 1 of 4

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Confianca 9 6 2 1 26:8 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 4 0 18:7 19
3 Lagarto 9 5 2 2 20:8 17
4 America de Propria 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 4 1 4 9:19 13
6 Falcon 9 4 0 5 11:15 12
7 Sergipe 9 3 2 4 10:11 11
8 Dorense 9 2 2 5 7:12 8
9 Barra SE 9 2 1 6 8:27 7
10 Carmopolis 9 0 3 6 10:16 3
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)