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Barreirense vs GD Varandinha

Cape Verde Cape Verde

Campeonato Nacional 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Barreirense play GD Varandinha in the Campeonato Nacional 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Barreirense averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.64 conceded. GD Varandinha averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. In past meetings, Barreirense won 2, GD Varandinha won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 26, 2024 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Barreirense and 1.13 for GD Varandinha. This points to a Barreirense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Barreirense
29%
Draws
26%
GD Varandinha
Draw rate projection: 29% Favored: Barreirense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • Barreirense picked up more points recently compared to GD Varandinha.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 46%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%
Barreirense Clean Sheet 21%
GD Varandinha Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barreirense GD Varandinha
Matches Played 22 30
Wins 4 5
Draws 7 8
Losses 11 17
Goals Scored 1.14 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.64 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 26, 2024 Campeonato Nacional
GD Varandinha vs Barreirense
2:3
May 18, 2024 Campeonato Nacional
Barreirense vs GD Varandinha
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barreirense Compare

Top Goalscorer Sylla
2 Goals
Assists Leader Da Veiga J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

GD Varandinha Compare

Top Goalscorer Cardoso I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barreirense 45 / 100
GD Varandinha 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barreirense GD Varandinha

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Barreirense or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15%
2.50
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Barreirense attacking → ← attacking GD Varandinha

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Barreirense scored in 64% of their last 22 games.

GD Varandinha let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Barreirense went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

GD Varandinha lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

19 Points in last 5 23
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Academico do Sal63129:810
2Academica do Fogo622211:68
3Rosariense62225:78
4Juventude61328:126
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Palmeira633013:512
2Morabeza62317:79
3Barreirense62228:88
4GD Varandinha60247:152
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Boavista da Praia651012:216
2FC Derby63217:411
3Ultramarina61145:134
4Sanjoanenses60243:82