Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Barretos EC vs Nacional SP

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Honorio L.

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A4 game between Barretos EC and Nacional SP finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Barretos EC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Barretos EC
30%
Draws
41%
Nacional SP
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Nacional SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Barretos EC come out ahead of Nacional SP on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Barretos EC have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24%
Barretos EC Clean Sheet 26%
Nacional SP Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barretos EC Nacional SP
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 9 8
Draws 12 8
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 0.75 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Paulista A4
Barretos EC vs Nacional SP
1:0
Feb 22, 2025 Paulista A4
Nacional SP vs Barretos EC
0:0
Feb 21, 2024 Paulista A4
Barretos EC vs Nacional SP
3:1
Feb 24, 2022 Paulista A3
Barretos EC vs Nacional SP
1:0
May 8, 2021 Paulista A3
Nacional SP vs Barretos EC
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barretos EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Honorio L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Nacional SP Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barretos EC 33 / 100
Nacional SP 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barretos EC Nacional SP

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacional SP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nacional SP has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Barretos EC remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Barretos EC's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Barretos EC VS Nacional SP
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
50% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Barretos EC

(Home)
19 Apr
Sao-Carlense
1 : 0
Barretos EC
10 Apr
Barretos EC
1 : 1
Sao-Carlense
04 Apr
Taquaritinga
2 : 0
Barretos EC
28 Mar
Barretos EC
1 : 0
Nacional SP
25 Mar
Penapolense
1 : 1
Barretos EC
Page 1 of 7

Nacional SP

(Away)
04 Apr
Nacional SP
0 : 1
Inter de Bebedouro
28 Mar
Barretos EC
1 : 0
Nacional SP
25 Mar
Nacional SP
0 : 0
ECUS SP
21 Mar
Nacional SP
4 : 1
Colorado Caieiras
18 Mar
AEA Aracatuba
2 : 3
Nacional SP
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter de Bebedouro 15 10 3 2 21:6 33
2 Sao Caetano 15 9 2 4 23:14 29
3 Penapolense 15 8 5 2 22:10 29
4 Sao-Carlense 15 7 5 3 20:13 26
5 Barretos EC 15 7 5 3 12:10 26
6 Taquaritinga 15 7 3 5 20:13 24
7 Jacarei FC 15 6 5 4 11:9 23
8 Lemense 15 6 4 5 14:12 22
9 ECUS SP 15 5 7 3 11:6 22
10 Comercial 15 6 2 7 17:16 20
11 Tanabi 15 4 6 5 12:10 18
12 Jabaquara 15 4 4 7 14:17 16
13 Vocem 15 3 6 6 12:13 15
14 Colorado Caieiras 15 1 7 7 6:20 10
15 Nacional SP 15 2 2 11 7:22 8
16 AEA Aracatuba 15 1 2 12 6:37 5
Promotion - Paulista A4 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista B (Main)