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Barrow vs Aldershot

England England

National League Holker Street, Barrow in Furness
Our Tip

Match Events

21'
Allen A.
32'
Adom-Malaki N.
45'
Efete M.

AI Match Summary

Barrow in this National League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Barrow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Barrow
35%
Draws
40%
Aldershot
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Aldershot

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

25% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Aldershot lately — more wins on the board than Barrow.
  • 25% — that's where the model lands on Barrow taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Barrow have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Barrow Clean Sheet 20%
Aldershot Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barrow Aldershot
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 11
Draws 7 5
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.14 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 National League
Barrow vs Aldershot
1:0
Dec 7, 2019 National League
Barrow vs Aldershot
1:0
Sep 7, 2019 National League
Aldershot vs Barrow
1:2
Mar 9, 2019 National League
Barrow vs Aldershot
2:1
Nov 24, 2018 National League
Aldershot vs Barrow
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barrow Compare

Top Goalscorer Harper R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Aldershot Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barrow 49 / 100
Aldershot 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barrow Aldershot

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Barrow Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Barrow scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Aldershot's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Barrow remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Barrow VS Aldershot
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Barrow

(Home)
15 Sept
Solihull Moors
1 : 0
Barrow
12 Sept
Worthing FC
2 : 2
Barrow
05 Sept
Barrow
3 : 0
Sutton
31 Aug
Kidderminster
1 : 1
Barrow
28 Aug
Barrow
1 : 2
Yeovil
Page 1 of 6

Aldershot

(Away)
15 Sept
Aldershot
1 : 1
Yeovil
12 Sept
Solihull Moors
1 : 2
Aldershot
08 Sept
Aldershot
0 : 3
West Ham U21
05 Sept
Aldershot
1 : 0
Halifax
31 Aug
Eastleigh
1 : 1
Aldershot
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Boreham Wood 8 6 2 0 19:10 20
2 AFC Fylde 8 5 2 1 19:11 17
3 Southend 8 5 2 1 17:11 17
4 Kidderminster 8 5 2 1 13:7 17
5 Harrogate 8 5 1 2 19:12 16
6 Yeovil 9 4 3 2 18:14 15
7 Aldershot 8 4 3 1 10:6 15
8 Sutton 8 5 0 3 9:9 15
9 Forest Green 8 4 1 3 12:11 13
10 Halifax 8 4 0 4 13:10 12
11 Hornchurch 8 4 0 4 10:12 12
12 Altrincham 8 4 0 4 10:14 12
13 Worthing FC 8 3 2 3 14:14 11
14 Eastleigh 8 3 2 3 10:10 11
15 Carlisle 8 2 4 2 16:13 10
16 Hartlepool 8 3 0 5 6:8 9
17 Woking 8 2 2 4 10:12 8
18 Boston United 8 2 2 4 10:12 8
19 Wealdstone 8 2 2 4 10:13 8
20 Scunthorpe 8 2 1 5 11:14 7
21 Barrow 8 1 3 4 10:12 6
22 Tamworth 8 1 2 5 14:22 5
23 Gateshead 8 1 1 6 5:14 4
24 Solihull Moors 9 1 1 7 9:23 4
Promotion - League Two 2027/2028 (Main)
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