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Barwell vs Bury Town

England England

Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Page C.
72' Event
Mauge J.
90' Event
Mauge J.

AI Match Summary

The Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 game between Barwell and Bury Town finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bury Town.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Barwell
15%
Draws
61%
Bury Town
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bury Town

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Bury Town carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Bury Town's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 27.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Barwell Clean Sheet 11%
Bury Town Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barwell Bury Town
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 17
Draws 5 10
Losses 20 3
Goals Scored 1.07 2.1
Goals Conceded 2.17 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.77
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Southern League Premier Central
Barwell vs Bury Town
0:3
Dec 6, 2025 Southern League Premier Central
Bury Town vs Barwell
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barwell Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Bury Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Mauge J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Page C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.61
Avg xA / game 0.98

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barwell 10 / 100
Bury Town 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barwell Bury Town

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bury Town Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Barwell scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Bury Town has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Barwell stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Barwell VS Bury Town
1 Goals Scored 1.88
1.67 Goals Conceded 0.88
83% Over 1.5 63%
67% Over 2.5 50%
17% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Barwell

(Home)
29 Aug
Loughborough Students
1 : 0
Barwell
04 Jul
Quorn
1 : 2
Barwell
25 Apr
Barwell
3 : 1
Stortford
18 Apr
Barwell
0 : 3
Bury Town
11 Apr
Needham Market
2 : 1
Barwell
Page 1 of 6

Bury Town

(Away)
05 Sept
London Lions
2 : 4
Bury Town
31 Aug
Bury Town
4 : 3
Leiston
29 Aug
Leighton Town
2 : 3
Bury Town
22 Aug
Bury Town
3 : 0
Leamington
15 Aug
Stratford
1 : 3
Bury Town
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Harborough 42 28 11 3 81:33 95
2 Spalding United 42 25 10 7 103:54 85
3 Real Bedford 42 24 9 9 84:47 81
4 Kettering 42 21 9 12 74:52 72
5 Halesowen 42 20 10 12 85:60 70
6 Needham Market 42 20 10 12 64:53 70
7 Redditch 42 21 7 14 67:58 70
8 Quorn 42 19 8 15 78:71 65
9 Worcester 42 17 12 13 64:44 63
10 Leiston 42 16 15 11 65:58 63
11 Stratford 42 17 10 15 61:54 61
12 Banbury 42 17 9 16 51:56 60
13 Bury Town 42 15 13 14 61:53 58
14 Alvechurch 42 14 8 20 49:55 50
15 Stourbridge 42 12 14 16 58:68 50
16 Stortford 42 13 10 19 53:67 49
17 Stamford 42 13 8 21 41:64 47
18 Bromsgrove 42 12 8 22 52:73 44
19 St Ives Town 42 9 12 21 50:73 39
20 Barwell 42 9 8 25 52:85 35
21 Royston Town 42 5 10 27 35:82 25
22 Sudbury 42 6 7 29 47:115 25
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 (Play Offs)