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Barwell vs Sudbury

England England

Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Hakeem Z.
24' Event
Stone J.
(Penalty)
38' Event
Mancinelli P.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 game between Barwell and Sudbury finished 2-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sudbury.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Barwell
15%
Draws
34%
Sudbury
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Barwell

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Sudbury carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Barwell a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Barwell Clean Sheet 13%
Sudbury Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barwell Sudbury
Matches Played 32 35
Wins 5 9
Draws 5 6
Losses 22 20
Goals Scored 1 1.66
Goals Conceded 2.09 2.49
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Southern League Premier Central
Barwell vs Sudbury
2:4
Nov 8, 2025 Southern League Premier Central
Sudbury vs Barwell
1:3
Feb 22, 2025 Southern League Premier Central
Sudbury vs Barwell
1:1
Nov 30, 2024 Southern League Premier Central
Barwell vs Sudbury
3:1
Jan 20, 2024 Southern League Premier Central
Barwell vs Sudbury
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barwell Compare

Top Goalscorer Hakeem Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

Sudbury Compare

Top Goalscorer Turner J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mulqueen J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barwell 84 / 100
Sudbury 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barwell Sudbury

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Barwell Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sudbury has conceded goals in 91% of their last 35 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Sudbury has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Barwell scored in 56% of their last 32 games.

Scoring Trends

Barwell VS Sudbury
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
2.5 Goals Conceded 3
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Barwell

(Home)
29 Aug
Loughborough Students
1 : 0
Barwell
04 Jul
Quorn
1 : 2
Barwell
25 Apr
Barwell
3 : 1
Stortford
18 Apr
Barwell
0 : 3
Bury Town
11 Apr
Needham Market
2 : 1
Barwell
Page 1 of 7

Sudbury

(Away)
12 Sept
Ware
2 : 0
Sudbury
29 Aug
Sudbury
3 : 1
Lowestoft
01 Aug
Bury Town
3 : 3
Sudbury
25 Apr
Halesowen
5 : 0
Sudbury
18 Apr
Sudbury
0 : 4
Stourbridge
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Harborough 42 28 11 3 81:33 95
2 Spalding United 42 25 10 7 103:54 85
3 Real Bedford 42 24 9 9 84:47 81
4 Kettering 42 21 9 12 74:52 72
5 Halesowen 42 20 10 12 85:60 70
6 Needham Market 42 20 10 12 64:53 70
7 Redditch 42 21 7 14 67:58 70
8 Quorn 42 19 8 15 78:71 65
9 Worcester 42 17 12 13 64:44 63
10 Leiston 42 16 15 11 65:58 63
11 Stratford 42 17 10 15 61:54 61
12 Banbury 42 17 9 16 51:56 60
13 Bury Town 42 15 13 14 61:53 58
14 Alvechurch 42 14 8 20 49:55 50
15 Stourbridge 42 12 14 16 58:68 50
16 Stortford 42 13 10 19 53:67 49
17 Stamford 42 13 8 21 41:64 47
18 Bromsgrove 42 12 8 22 52:73 44
19 St Ives Town 42 9 12 21 50:73 39
20 Barwell 42 9 8 25 52:85 35
21 Royston Town 42 5 10 27 35:82 25
22 Sudbury 42 6 7 29 47:115 25
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 (Play Offs)