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Basconia vs Atletico Astorga - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Hernandez E.
48' Event
Martinez P.
66' Event
Pesquera R.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

Basconia in this Segunda RFEF - Group 1 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Basconia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Basconia
20%
Draws
22%
Atletico Astorga
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Basconia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Basconia have won more games recently than Atletico Astorga.
  • 58% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Basconia Clean Sheet 15%
Atletico Astorga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Basconia Atletico Astorga
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 11
Draws 11 5
Losses 5 13
Goals Scored 1.97 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Basconia vs Atletico Astorga
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Basconia Compare

Top Goalscorer Hernandez E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Martinez P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Atletico Astorga Compare

Top Goalscorer Ribeiro A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hoyos J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Basconia 30 / 100
Atletico Astorga 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Basconia Atletico Astorga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Basconia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Basconia found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Atletico Astorga's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Basconia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Basconia VS Atletico Astorga
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Basconia

(Home)
03 Oct
Basconia
1 : 1
Llanera
27 Sept
Marino De Luanco
1 : 2
Basconia
19 Sept
Basconia
2 : 2
Arosa SC
13 Sept
Basconia
3 : 2
Atletico Astorga
06 Sept
Ourense CF
2 : 1
Basconia
Page 1 of 6

Atletico Astorga

(Away)
03 Oct
Atletico Astorga
0 : 1
Amorebieta
26 Sept
Sestao
2 : 0
Atletico Astorga
19 Sept
Atletico Astorga
3 : 0
Marino De Luanco
13 Sept
Basconia
3 : 2
Atletico Astorga
05 Sept
Atletico Astorga
0 : 1
Portugalete
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bergantinos 5 4 1 0 12:5 13
2 Eibar B 5 4 0 1 10:3 12
3 Alaves B 5 4 0 1 12:6 12
4 Sestao 5 4 0 1 7:3 12
5 Ourense CF 5 3 1 1 5:3 10
6 Gernika Club 5 2 2 1 12:5 8
7 Basconia 5 2 2 1 9:8 8
8 Amorebieta 5 2 1 2 5:4 7
9 Portugalete 5 2 1 2 5:6 7
10 Real Oviedo B 5 2 1 2 8:10 7
11 Marino De Luanco 5 2 0 3 6:8 6
12 Coruxo FC 5 1 2 2 6:7 5
13 Compostela 5 1 1 3 3:6 4
14 Gimnastic de Torrelavega 5 1 1 3 6:10 4
15 Llanera 5 1 1 3 5:10 4
16 Atletico Astorga 5 1 0 4 5:7 3
17 Arosa SC 5 0 3 2 6:13 3
18 Rayo Cantabria 5 0 1 4 3:11 1
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Play Out)