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Basel vs Lugano - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Switzerland Switzerland

Super League St. Jakob-Park, Basel
Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Moncada D.
46'
Sub
Omlin J. In: Salvi M.
Out: Omlin J.
46'
Sub
Thorell L. In: Shaqiri X.
Out: Thorell L.

AI Match Summary

The Super League game between Basel and Lugano finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lugano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Basel
15%
Draws
67%
Lugano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lugano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / High Confidence
  • Basel haven't matched Lugano's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Lugano's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 90%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Lugano have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 90%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Basel Clean Sheet 10%
Lugano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Basel Lugano
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 8 24
Draws 5 4
Losses 15 2
Goals Scored 1.68 2.93
Goals Conceded 2.29 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 1, 2026 Super League
Lugano vs Basel
2:1
Sep 6, 2026 Super League
Basel vs Lugano
1:3
May 17, 2026 Super League
Lugano vs Basel
4:0
Feb 15, 2026 Super League
Basel vs Lugano
1:1
Nov 9, 2025 Super League
Basel vs Lugano
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Basel Compare

Top Goalscorer Metinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Lugano Compare

Top Goalscorer Cimignani Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bislimi U.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.55
Avg xA / game 1.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Basel 10 / 100
Lugano 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Basel Lugano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lugano Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:8
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Basel found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

Lugano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Basel has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Basel VS Lugano
1.63 Goals Scored 3.13
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Basel

(Home)
01 Nov
Lugano
2 : 1
Basel
25 Oct
Basel
0 : 0
Grasshoppers
16 Oct
Stade Nyonnais
0 : 3
Basel
11 Oct
Vaduz
3 : 0
Basel
03 Oct
Winterthur
7 : 3
Basel
Page 1 of 6

Lugano

(Away)
05 Nov
Lugano
3 : 0
FK Kauno Zalgiris
01 Nov
Lugano
2 : 1
Basel
25 Oct
Thun
2 : 3
Lugano
22 Oct
Getafe
2 : 5
Lugano
18 Oct
Pully
0 : 4
Lugano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lugano 12 11 1 0 36:10 34
2 Young Boys 12 7 4 1 38:23 25
3 Sion 12 7 2 3 25:18 23
4 Zurich 12 6 2 4 25:26 20
5 St. Gallen 12 6 1 5 19:22 19
6 Servette 12 5 1 6 17:16 16
7 Basel 12 4 2 6 18:22 14
8 Luzern 12 3 4 5 19:25 13
9 Thun 12 4 1 7 24:34 13
10 Vaduz 12 3 1 8 24:25 10
11 Grasshoppers 12 2 4 6 15:28 10
12 Lausanne 12 1 3 8 11:22 6
Promotion - Super League (Championship Group)
Relegation - Super League (Relegation Group)