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Basel vs Lugano

Switzerland Switzerland

Super League St. Jakob-Park, Basel
Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Moncada D.
46'
Sub
Omlin J. In: Salvi M.
Out: Omlin J.
46'
Sub
Thorell L. In: Shaqiri X.
Out: Thorell L.

AI Match Summary

The Super League game between Basel and Lugano finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lugano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Basel
20%
Draws
52%
Lugano
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lugano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Basel haven't matched Lugano's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Lugano's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Lugano have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Basel Clean Sheet 10%
Lugano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Basel Lugano
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 11 20
Draws 4 7
Losses 13 5
Goals Scored 1.75 2.19
Goals Conceded 2.07 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Super League
Basel vs Lugano
1:3
May 17, 2026 Super League
Lugano vs Basel
4:0
Feb 15, 2026 Super League
Basel vs Lugano
1:1
Nov 9, 2025 Super League
Basel vs Lugano
0:1
Aug 10, 2025 Super League
Lugano vs Basel
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Basel Compare

Top Goalscorer Metinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Lugano Compare

Top Goalscorer Cimignani Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bislimi U.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Basel 10 / 100
Lugano 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Basel Lugano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lugano Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:8
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Basel found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).

Lugano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Basel has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Basel VS Lugano
2.88 Goals Scored 3.13
2.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Basel

(Home)
13 Sept
Luzern
2 : 4
Basel
06 Sept
Basel
1 : 3
Lugano
03 Sept
Basel
1 : 2
Sion
29 Aug
Young Boys
3 : 3
Basel
22 Aug
Zurich
1 : 2
Basel
Page 1 of 6

Lugano

(Away)
16 Sept
Lugano
4 : 1
St. Gallen
12 Sept
Lugano
2 : 2
Young Boys
06 Sept
Basel
1 : 3
Lugano
03 Sept
Lugano
1 : 0
Servette
30 Aug
Sion
1 : 2
Lugano
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lugano 8 7 1 0 23:7 22
2 Young Boys 9 5 4 0 31:18 19
3 Sion 9 6 1 2 23:14 19
4 Basel 8 4 1 3 16:14 13
5 Luzern 9 3 3 3 17:18 12
6 Zurich 9 3 2 4 14:20 11
7 Servette 9 3 1 5 11:13 10
8 St. Gallen 8 3 1 4 13:18 10
9 Grasshoppers 9 2 2 5 13:24 8
10 Thun 8 2 1 5 13:22 7
11 Vaduz 8 2 0 6 17:19 6
12 Lausanne 8 1 3 4 7:11 6
Promotion - Super League (Championship Group)
Relegation - Super League (Relegation Group)