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Basel vs Thun - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Switzerland Switzerland

Super League St. Jakob-Park, Basel
Basel Logo

Basel

4 - 2
FT
Thun Logo

Thun

Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Sow A.
Assist: Olaigbe K.
31' Event
Sow A.
Assist: Leroy L.
38'
Reichmuth N.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Basel in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Basel.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Basel
15%
Draws
51%
Thun
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Thun

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Thun lately — more wins on the board than Basel.
  • Model gives Thun a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Basel Clean Sheet 10%
Thun Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Basel Thun
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 8 10
Draws 5 5
Losses 15 15
Goals Scored 1.68 2.03
Goals Conceded 2.29 2.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Super League
Basel vs Thun
4:2
May 2, 2026 Super League
Basel vs Thun
3:1
Apr 18, 2026 Super League
Thun vs Basel
3:1
Feb 1, 2026 Super League
Basel vs Thun
1:2
Sep 13, 2025 Super League
Thun vs Basel
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Basel Compare

Top Goalscorer Sow A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Celar Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Thun Compare

Top Goalscorer Stewart L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Labeau B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Basel 26 / 100
Thun 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Basel Thun

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Thun Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Thun let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.20 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Basel scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Away concern: Thun has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Basel VS Thun
1.5 Goals Scored 1.63
2.13 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Basel

(Home)
01 Nov
Lugano
2 : 1
Basel
25 Oct
Basel
0 : 0
Grasshoppers
16 Oct
Stade Nyonnais
0 : 3
Basel
11 Oct
Vaduz
3 : 0
Basel
03 Oct
Winterthur
7 : 3
Basel
Page 1 of 6

Thun

(Away)
01 Nov
Lausanne
4 : 5
Thun
25 Oct
Thun
2 : 3
Lugano
22 Oct
Thun
0 : 1
Hajduk Split
18 Oct
Schaffhausen
2 : 3
Thun
15 Oct
Twente
1 : 0
Thun
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lugano 12 11 1 0 36:10 34
2 Young Boys 12 7 4 1 38:23 25
3 Sion 12 7 2 3 25:18 23
4 Zurich 12 6 2 4 25:26 20
5 St. Gallen 12 6 1 5 19:22 19
6 Servette 12 5 1 6 17:16 16
7 Basel 12 4 2 6 18:22 14
8 Luzern 12 3 4 5 19:25 13
9 Thun 12 4 1 7 24:34 13
10 Vaduz 12 3 1 8 24:25 10
11 Grasshoppers 12 2 4 6 15:28 10
12 Lausanne 12 1 3 8 11:22 6
Promotion - Super League (Championship Group)
Relegation - Super League (Relegation Group)