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Bastia vs Cannes - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 3 Stade Armand Cesari, Bastia
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Sub
Tomi F. In: Makalou H.
Out: Tomi F.
17' Event
Goncalves C.
24'
Abderrahmane H.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 3 game between Bastia and Cannes finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Bastia
35%
Draws
42%
Cannes
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Cannes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Cannes carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Cannes are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Ligue 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Bastia Clean Sheet 17%
Cannes Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bastia Cannes
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 6 16
Draws 12 12
Losses 11 3
Goals Scored 0.93 1.94
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 Ligue 3
Bastia vs Cannes
1:1
Feb 12, 2011 Ligue 3
Bastia vs Cannes
0:0
Sep 10, 2010 Ligue 3
Cannes vs Bastia
2:1
Dec 17, 2006 Coupe de France
Cannes vs Bastia
2:3
Feb 13, 1998 Ligue 1
Cannes vs Bastia
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bastia Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigues C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Cannes Compare

Top Goalscorer Goncalves C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bastia 20 / 100
Cannes 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bastia Cannes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cannes Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bastia found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Bastia remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Cannes let in goals in 58% of their last 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Bastia VS Cannes
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Bastia

(Home)
01 Oct
Bastia
1 : 1
Orleans
26 Sept
Paris 13 Atletico
1 : 0
Bastia
17 Sept
Bastia
1 : 1
Cannes
12 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 1
Bastia
05 Sept
Bastia
0 : 3
Amiens SC
Page 1 of 6

Cannes

(Away)
03 Oct
Cannes
3 : 1
Quevilly
26 Sept
Orleans
0 : 0
Cannes
17 Sept
Bastia
1 : 1
Cannes
10 Sept
Cannes
0 : 0
Amiens SC
05 Sept
Versailles
0 : 3
Cannes
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Roche Vendee 9 6 3 0 15:8 21
2 Rouen 9 6 2 1 17:5 20
3 Concarneau 9 4 4 1 12:8 16
4 Versailles 9 5 1 3 13:12 16
5 Amiens SC 9 4 3 2 12:3 15
6 Cannes 9 3 6 0 11:4 15
7 Caen 9 5 0 4 17:12 15
8 Le Puy-en-Velay 9 4 1 4 11:9 13
9 Thionville 9 3 3 3 14:14 12
10 Fleury 91 9 3 3 3 15:12 12
11 Paris 13 Atletico 9 3 3 3 7:9 12
12 Bastia 9 3 2 4 7:11 11
13 Quevilly 9 2 4 3 8:12 10
14 Orleans 9 2 3 4 7:11 9
15 Valenciennes 9 2 2 5 9:14 8
16 Aubagne FC 9 2 1 6 6:12 7
17 Bourg Peronnas 9 1 2 6 5:15 5
18 Villefranche 9 1 1 7 7:22 4
Promotion - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Relegation)