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Bataguassu vs Naviraiense

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Sul-Matogrossense
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AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-4. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Bataguassu
30%
Draws
47%
Naviraiense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Naviraiense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Bataguassu haven't matched Naviraiense's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Naviraiense arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Naviraiense, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Bataguassu here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Bataguassu Clean Sheet 10%
Naviraiense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bataguassu Naviraiense
Matches Played 25 28
Wins 12 13
Draws 6 9
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 2.16 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 18, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Naviraiense vs Bataguassu
0:4
Mar 15, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Bataguassu vs Naviraiense
0:1
Jan 24, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Bataguassu vs Naviraiense
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bataguassu 29 / 100
Naviraiense 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bataguassu Naviraiense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bataguassu Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Bataguassu scored in 92% of their last 25 outings.

Naviraiense let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.33 goals as a typical output.

Bataguassu went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bataguassu VS Naviraiense
1.75 Goals Scored 1.63
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Bataguassu

(Home)
02 Apr
Operario MS
2 : 1
Bataguassu
21 Mar
Bataguassu
1 : 3
Operario MS
18 Mar
Naviraiense
0 : 4
Bataguassu
15 Mar
Bataguassu
0 : 1
Naviraiense
11 Mar
Ivinhema
4 : 4
Bataguassu
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Naviraiense

(Away)
18 Mar
Naviraiense
0 : 4
Bataguassu
15 Mar
Bataguassu
0 : 1
Naviraiense
01 Mar
Aguia Negra
1 : 2
Naviraiense
22 Feb
Naviraiense
0 : 0
Operario MS
15 Feb
Costa Rica
1 : 1
Naviraiense
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Operario MS -
TBD -
Corumbaense 3
Dourados 1
Naviraiense -
TBD -
Ivinhema 5
Bataguassu 6
Semi-finals
Operario MS 4
Corumbaense 2
Naviraiense 1
Bataguassu 4
Final
Operario MS 5
Bataguassu 2