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Bautzen vs Freital

Germany Germany

Oberliga NOFV- Sud 2025/2026
Bautzen Logo

Bautzen

3 - 1
FT
Freital Logo

Freital

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Bautzen in this Oberliga NOFV- Sud 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bautzen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Bautzen
15%
Draws
73%
Freital
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Freital

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Freital have won more games recently than Bautzen.
  • Model gives Freital a 73% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Bautzen Clean Sheet 11%
Freital Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bautzen Freital
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 13 17
Draws 8 2
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.56 1.86
Goals Conceded 1.94 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
Bautzen vs Freital
3:1
Oct 31, 2025 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
Freital vs Bautzen
4:1
Dec 15, 2024 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
Bautzen vs Freital
3:1
Aug 2, 2024 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
Freital vs Bautzen
1:2
Apr 19, 2024 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
Bautzen vs Freital
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bautzen 10 / 100
Freital 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bautzen Freital

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Freital Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Bautzen scored in 75% of their last 32 games.

Freital has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Difficult form: Freital registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bautzen VS Freital
1.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Bautzen

(Home)
28 Aug
Bautzen
0 : 3
Auerbach
16 Aug
Einheit Rudolstadt
0 : 0
Bautzen
09 Aug
Bautzen
2 : 5
Eilenburg
03 Jul
Bautzen
0 : 14
Dresden
30 May
Auerbach
4 : 2
Bautzen
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Freital

(Away)
29 Aug
Freital
1 : 3
Eilenburg
16 Aug
Freital
4 : 2
1.FC Frankfurt
09 Aug
Dresden II
1 : 0
Freital
30 May
Rsv Eintracht
2 : 1
Freital
17 May
Freital
2 : 0
Auerbach
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rsv Eintracht 30 20 8 2 61:29 68
2 Freital 30 19 2 9 57:28 59
3 Plauen 30 18 5 7 52:28 59
4 Auerbach 30 14 9 7 51:37 51
5 Halberstadt 30 14 6 10 49:44 48
6 Halle 30 13 7 10 68:45 46
7 Bautzen 30 12 9 9 57:46 45
8 Krieschow 30 12 7 11 48:42 43
9 Glauchau 30 11 7 12 46:52 40
10 Sandersdorf 30 10 9 11 40:41 39
11 Einheit Wernigerode 30 9 6 15 41:58 33
12 Einheit Rudolstadt 30 9 6 15 39:60 33
13 Stendal 30 8 6 16 41:59 30
14 Grimma 30 8 4 18 47:73 28
15 Bischofswerdaer 30 6 7 17 36:61 25
16 Heiligenstadt 30 4 8 18 33:63 20
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