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Bay FC W vs Washington Spirit W

USA USA

NWSL Women PayPal Park, San Jose, CA
Our Tip

Match Events

45'
Sub
Di Guglielmo L. In: Metayer P.
Out: Di Guglielmo L.
46'
Sub
Cantore S. In: Martinez Ovando C.
Out: Cantore S.
57' Event
Courtnall B.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The NWSL Women game between Bay FC W and Washington Spirit W finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Washington Spirit W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Bay FC W
39%
Draws
31%
Washington Spirit W
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Washington Spirit W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular NWSL Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Washington Spirit W here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Bay FC W Clean Sheet 17%
Washington Spirit W Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bay FC W Washington Spirit W
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 6 17
Draws 7 5
Losses 15 7
Goals Scored 1 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2026 NWSL Women
Bay FC W vs Washington Spirit W
0:2
Aug 23, 2025 NWSL Women
Bay FC W vs Washington Spirit W
2:3
Mar 29, 2025 NWSL Women
Washington Spirit W vs Bay FC W
2:0
Nov 10, 2024 NWSL Women
Washington Spirit W vs Bay FC W
2:1
Jul 7, 2024 NWSL Women
Bay FC W vs Washington Spirit W
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bay FC W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Washington Spirit W Compare

Top Goalscorer Monday G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bay FC W 30 / 100
Washington Spirit W 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bay FC W Washington Spirit W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BAY Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bay FC W found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (28 games).

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Bay FC W has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Washington Spirit W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Bay FC W VS Washington Spirit W
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Bay FC W

(Home)
25 Jul
Houston Dash W
1 : 0
Bay FC W
18 Jul
Bay FC W
3 : 0
North Carolina Courage W
11 Jul
Racing Louisville W
0 : 2
Bay FC W
05 Jul
Boston Legacy W
2 : 2
Bay FC W
29 May
Orlando Pride W
3 : 1
Bay FC W
Page 1 of 6

Washington Spirit W

(Away)
26 Jul
Washington Spirit W
1 : 0
Denver Summit W
19 Jul
Boston Legacy W
1 : 2
Washington Spirit W
16 Jul
Gotham FC W
1 : 0
Washington Spirit W
11 Jul
North Carolina Courage W
0 : 2
Washington Spirit W
04 Jul
Washington Spirit W
2 : 1
Houston Dash W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Washington Spirit W16103325:1233
2Gotham FC W1694321:1231
3Utah Royals W1693426:1730
4San Diego Wave W1792623:1929
5Portland Thorns FC W1784527:2028
6Kansas City Current W1681723:2325
7Orlando Pride W1772822:2123
8Angel City W1571723:1622
9North Carolina Courage W1563621:2321
10Seattle Reign W1562717:1920
11Denver Summit W1554621:2019
12Houston Dash W1654719:2419
13Boston Legacy W1754818:2319
14Bay FC W1553716:2018
15Chicago Stars W1640128:3112
16Racing Louisville W15321018:2811
Promotion - NWSL Women (Play Offs)