Sport Picks
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin
Germany
Bundesliga BayArena, Leverkusen 
Match Events
1'
1'
Fernandez E.
Assist: Gutierrez M.
4'
4'
Uduokhai F.
28'
28'
Medina F.
Assist: Gutierrez M.
AI Match Summary
The Bundesliga game between Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bayer Leverkusen.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
20%
23%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bayer Leverkusen
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Union Berlin haven't matched Bayer Leverkusen's recent run of results.
- 57% — that's where the model lands on Bayer Leverkusen taking it.
- Regular Bundesliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Bayer Leverkusen Clean Sheet 16%
Union Berlin Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Bayer Leverkusen | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 16 | 8 |
| Draws | 8 | 7 |
| Losses | 7 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 2.13 | 1.76 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 2.14 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.75 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 5, 2026 Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin
4:0
Feb 21, 2026 Bundesliga
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen
1:0
Oct 4, 2025 Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin
2:0
Apr 12, 2025 Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin
0:0
Nov 30, 2024 Bundesliga
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Bayer Leverkusen Compare
Top Goalscorer Fernandez E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Medina F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38
Union Berlin Compare
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Bayer Leverkusen 84 / 100
Union Berlin 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Bayer Leverkusen Union Berlin
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Bayer Leverkusen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Bayer Leverkusen scored in 87% of their last 31 outings.
Defensive concern: Union Berlin conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Bayer Leverkusen went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Bayer Leverkusen VS Union Berlin
2.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 3.38
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 100%
Recent Form & Match History
Bayer Leverkusen
(Home) 20 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0 RB Leipzig
16 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0 Celje
12 Sept
Augsburg
2 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
05 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
4 : 0 Union Berlin
29 Aug
Elversberg
3 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
Page 1 of 7
20 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0 RB Leipzig
16 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0 Celje
05 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
4 : 0 Union Berlin
08 Aug
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 1 Sevilla
01 Aug
Bayer Leverkusen
3 : 0 RW Essen
Page 1 of 3
Union Berlin
(Away) 26 Sept
Rijeka
0 : 1 Union Berlin
18 Sept
Bayern Munich
7 : 0 Union Berlin
11 Sept
Union Berlin
1 : 3 Schalke
05 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
4 : 0 Union Berlin
29 Aug
Union Berlin
3 : 3 Eintracht Frankfurt
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Rijeka
0 : 1 Union Berlin
18 Sept
Bayern Munich
7 : 0 Union Berlin
05 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
4 : 0 Union Berlin
23 Aug
Braunschweig
2 : 4 Union Berlin
01 Aug
Dresden
2 : 1 Union Berlin
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9:2 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14:2 | 10 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:3 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11:6 | 7 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10:5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10:6 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:7 | 7 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:8 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9:5 | 6 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9:10 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3:4 | 5 |
| 12 | Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3:5 | 4 |
| 13 | 1. FC Koln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6:9 | 4 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7:10 | 3 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 16 | Hamburger | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:13 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4:17 | 1 |
| 18 | B. Monchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6:16 | 0 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)
