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Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart

Germany Germany

DFB Pokal 2025/2026 Olympiastadion, Berlin
Bayern Munich Logo

Bayern Munich

3 - 0
FT
VfB Stuttgart Logo

VfB Stuttgart

Our Tip

Match Events

54'
Fuhrich C.
55' Event
Kane H.
64'
Sub
Jaquez L. In: Jeltsch F.
Out: Jaquez L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Bayern Munich in this DFB Pokal 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Bayern Munich
15%
Draws
27%
VfB Stuttgart
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bayern Munich

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bayern Munich lately — more wins on the board than VfB Stuttgart.
  • Model gives Bayern Munich a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Bayern Munich have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Bayern Munich, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 90%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Bayern Munich have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 90%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Bayern Munich Clean Sheet 10%
VfB Stuttgart Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bayern Munich VfB Stuttgart
Matches Played 35 32
Wins 28 15
Draws 4 8
Losses 3 9
Goals Scored 3.46 2.44
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart
5:1
May 23, 2026 DFB Pokal
Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart
3:0
Apr 19, 2026 Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart
4:2
Dec 6, 2025 Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern Munich
0:5
Aug 16, 2025 Super Cup
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern Munich
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bayern Munich Compare

Top Goalscorer Kane H.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

VfB Stuttgart Compare

Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bayern Munich 74 / 100
VfB Stuttgart 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bayern Munich VfB Stuttgart

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bayern Munich Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bayern Munich found the back of the net in 100% of recent matches (35 games).

H2H data points to 4.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Bayern Munich stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

VfB Stuttgart let in goals in 72% of their last 32 matches.

Scoring Trends

Bayern Munich VS VfB Stuttgart
4 Goals Scored 3.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Bayern Munich

(Home)
28 Aug
Bayern Munich
5 : 1
VfB Stuttgart
22 Aug
Dortmund
1 : 2
Bayern Munich
18 Aug
Heidenheim
2 : 4
Bayern Munich
15 Aug
Bayern Munich
3 : 1
RB Leipzig
07 Aug
Bayern Munich
2 : 1
Aston Villa
Page 1 of 7

VfB Stuttgart

(Away)
28 Aug
Bayern Munich
5 : 1
VfB Stuttgart
21 Aug
Hansa Rostock
0 : 4
VfB Stuttgart
15 Aug
Fulham
1 : 0
VfB Stuttgart
08 Aug
VfB Stuttgart
3 : 1
Everton
01 Aug
VfB Stuttgart
2 : 2
Paris FC
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Engers 0
Eintracht Frankfurt 5
RW Essen 0
Dortmund 1
FC Viktoria Koln 1
Paderborn 3
Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0
Bayer Leverkusen 4
Delmenhorst 2
B. Monchengladbach 3
Meuselwitz 0
Karlsruher 5
Eintracht Norderstedt 0
St. Pauli 1
Hansa Rostock 0
Hoffenheim 4
Gutersloh 0
Union Berlin 5
Arminia Bielefeld 1
Werder Bremen 0
Regensburg 1
1. FC Koln 2
Wehen 2
Bayern Munich 3
Energie Cottbus 1
Hannover 0
Sandhausen 2
RB Leipzig 4
Illertissen 4
Nurnberg 3
Saarbrucken 1
Magdeburg 3
Bahlinger 0
Heidenheim 5
Pirmasens 1
Hamburger 2
Hemelingen 0
Wolfsburg 9
FC 08 Homburg 0
Holstein Kiel 2
Hallescher 0
Augsburg 2
BFC Dynamo 1
Bochum 3
Dresden 0
Mainz 1
Braunschweig 4
VfB Stuttgart 5
Preussen Munster 0
Hertha Berlin 1
Ulm 0
Elversberg 1
Lohne 0
Greuther Furth 2
Rsv Eintracht 0
Kaiserslautern 7
1. FC Schweinfurt 2
Dusseldorf 4
Lotte 0
Freiburg 2
Lubeck 1
Darmstadt 2
Lokomotive Leipzig 0
Schalke 1
1/16-finals
Eintracht Frankfurt 1
Dortmund 2
Paderborn 2
Bayer Leverkusen 4
B. Monchengladbach 3
Karlsruher 1
St. Pauli 3
Hoffenheim 2
Union Berlin 2
Arminia Bielefeld 1
1. FC Koln 1
Bayern Munich 4
Energie Cottbus 1
RB Leipzig 4
Illertissen 0
Magdeburg 3
Heidenheim 0
Hamburger 1
Wolfsburg 0
Holstein Kiel 1
Augsburg 0
Bochum 1
Mainz 0
VfB Stuttgart 2
Hertha Berlin 3
Elversberg 0
Greuther Furth 0
Kaiserslautern 1
Dusseldorf 1
Freiburg 3
Darmstadt 4
Schalke 0
1/8-finals
Dortmund 0
Bayer Leverkusen 1
B. Monchengladbach 1
St. Pauli 2
Union Berlin 2
Bayern Munich 3
RB Leipzig 3
Magdeburg 1
Hamburger 1
Holstein Kiel 2
Bochum 0
VfB Stuttgart 2
Hertha Berlin 6
Kaiserslautern 1
Freiburg 2
Darmstadt 0
Quarter-finals
Bayer Leverkusen 3
St. Pauli 0
Bayern Munich 2
RB Leipzig 0
Holstein Kiel 0
VfB Stuttgart 3
Hertha Berlin 1
Freiburg 2
Semi-finals
Bayer Leverkusen 0
Bayern Munich 2
VfB Stuttgart 2
Freiburg 1
Final
Bayern Munich 3
VfB Stuttgart 0