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BE1 NFA vs Neptunas

Lithuania Lithuania

I Lyga
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
VS
03:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

BE1 NFA host Neptunas in the I Lyga. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Neptunas have shipped 1.13 goals a game lately, while BE1 NFA have conceded 1.16 and scored 1.75. Past meetings favor Neptunas slightly — 0-4-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 30, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.44 vs 1.19, favoring BE1 NFA. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
BE1 NFA
15%
Draws
24%
Neptunas
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: BE1 NFA

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Neptunas haven't matched BE1 NFA's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans BE1 NFA's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Neptunas have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
BE1 NFA Clean Sheet 20%
Neptunas Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric BE1 NFA Neptunas
Matches Played 32 32
Wins 19 17
Draws 2 3
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.75 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 I Lyga
Neptunas vs BE1 NFA
1:0
Aug 15, 2025 I Lyga
BE1 NFA vs Neptunas
0:4
Apr 18, 2025 I Lyga
Neptunas vs BE1 NFA
3:0
Oct 18, 2024 I Lyga
Neptunas vs BE1 NFA
4:1
May 31, 2024 I Lyga
BE1 NFA vs Neptunas
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

BE1 NFA 85 / 100
Neptunas 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
BE1 NFA Neptunas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BE1 NFA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

BE1 NFA went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

BE1 NFA found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (32 games).

Neptunas let in goals in 66% of their last 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

BE1 NFA VS Neptunas
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

BE1 NFA

(Home)
18 Sept
BE1 NFA
2 : 1
Transinvest 2
14 Sept
Siauliai 2
0 : 2
BE1 NFA
04 Sept
BE1 NFA
1 : 0
FK Kauno Zalgiris 2
29 Aug
Ekranas
0 : 5
BE1 NFA
21 Aug
BE1 NFA
2 : 0
Garliava
Page 1 of 7

Neptunas

(Away)
19 Sept
FK Minija
2 : 1
Neptunas
11 Sept
Neptunas
2 : 0
Jonava
07 Sept
Zalgiris 2
1 : 0
Neptunas
29 Aug
Neptunas
3 : 1
FK Atmosfera
22 Aug
BFA Vilnius
2 : 0
Neptunas
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Minija 24 21 1 2 63:13 64
2 FK Babrungas 24 18 4 2 42:11 58
3 BE1 NFA 24 16 2 6 43:25 50
4 Neptunas 25 14 2 9 33:30 44
5 BFA Vilnius 25 13 4 8 39:35 43
6 Zalgiris 2 24 13 4 7 38:31 43
7 Tauras Taurage 25 13 4 8 43:31 43
8 Dainava Alytus 24 11 7 6 34:23 40
9 FK Atmosfera 24 8 6 10 37:33 30
10 Jonava 25 7 6 12 28:33 27
11 Hegelmann Litauen 2 25 7 1 17 30:56 22
12 FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 24 7 1 16 23:38 22
13 Garliava 24 6 4 14 27:30 22
14 Transinvest 2 25 6 3 16 29:58 21
15 Siauliai 2 25 4 5 16 27:56 17
16 Ekranas 25 4 2 19 25:58 14
Promotion - TOPLYGA 2027 (Main)
Promotion - TOPLYGA (Relegation)
Relegation - I Lyga (Relegation)