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Beasain vs Santurtzi

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Almandoz B.
39' Event
Iradi M.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 game between Beasain and Santurtzi finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Beasain.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Beasain
30%
Draws
31%
Santurtzi
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Beasain

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Beasain carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Beasain a 39% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Beasain Clean Sheet 20%
Santurtzi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Beasain Santurtzi
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 8
Draws 9 9
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.24 0.96
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Beasain vs Santurtzi
2:0
Apr 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Santurtzi vs Beasain
1:3
Nov 30, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Beasain vs Santurtzi
3:0
Mar 29, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Santurtzi vs Beasain
0:0
Nov 1, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Beasain vs Santurtzi
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Beasain Compare

Top Goalscorer Almandoz B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Iradi M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Santurtzi Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Beasain 85 / 100
Santurtzi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Beasain Santurtzi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Beasain Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Beasain's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Santurtzi let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Beasain stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Beasain VS Santurtzi
1.88 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Beasain

(Home)
19 Sept
Touring KE
2 : 0
Beasain
13 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
0 : 0
Beasain
05 Sept
Beasain
2 : 0
Santurtzi
29 Aug
Lagun Onak
2 : 2
Beasain
28 Aug
Beasain
2 : 3
Valle Egues
Page 1 of 6

Santurtzi

(Away)
13 Sept
Santurtzi
2 : 1
SCD Durango
05 Sept
Beasain
2 : 0
Santurtzi
14 Aug
Eibar C
3 : 1
Santurtzi
12 Aug
Santurtzi
0 : 0
SD Erandio
09 May
SCD Durango
4 : 1
Santurtzi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aurrera de Vitoria 3 2 1 0 5:3 7
2 Eibar C 3 1 2 0 5:3 5
3 Sodupe 3 1 2 0 3:1 5
4 Derio 3 1 2 0 3:1 5
5 UD Aretxabaleta 3 1 2 0 1:0 5
6 Alaves C 3 1 1 1 5:3 4
7 Real Sociedad C 3 1 1 1 4:3 4
8 Touring KE 3 1 1 1 3:2 4
9 Beasain 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
10 Pasaia 3 1 1 1 4:5 4
11 Real Union B 3 1 1 1 4:5 4
12 Lagun Onak 3 1 1 1 2:3 4
13 Leioa 3 0 3 0 5:5 3
14 SD Erandio 3 1 0 2 3:4 3
15 Santurtzi 3 1 0 2 2:5 3
16 SCD Durango 3 0 2 1 4:5 2
17 San Ignacio 3 0 2 1 4:5 2
18 Amurrio Club 3 0 1 2 1:5 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 (Play Offs)