Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Beira Mar vs Castro Daire

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B Estádio Municipal de Aveiro, Aveiro
Our Tip

Match Events

53' Event
Marcel
75' Event
Serio T.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group B matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Beira Mar
35%
Draws
26%
Castro Daire
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Beira Mar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Castro Daire haven't matched Beira Mar's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Beira Mar's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Beira Mar Clean Sheet 68%
Castro Daire Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Beira Mar Castro Daire
Matches Played 35 29
Wins 16 5
Draws 9 7
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.26 0.79
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Beira Mar vs Castro Daire
1:1
Apr 2, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Castro Daire vs Beira Mar
0:1
Dec 11, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Beira Mar vs Castro Daire
1:0
Feb 21, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Castro Daire vs Beira Mar
2:1
Nov 7, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Beira Mar vs Castro Daire
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Beira Mar Compare

Top Goalscorer Serio T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Castro Daire Compare

Top Goalscorer Marcel
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Beira Mar 50 / 100
Castro Daire 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Beira Mar Castro Daire

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Beira Mar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Beira Mar scored in 80% of their last 35 outings.

Castro Daire has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Beira Mar has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Beira Mar VS Castro Daire
1.38 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Beira Mar

(Home)
13 Sept
Beira Mar
1 : 1
Castro Daire
06 Sept
Cinfaes
2 : 2
Beira Mar
28 Aug
Beira Mar
4 : 3
Uniao Lamas
23 Aug
Beira Mar
0 : 2
Machico
16 Aug
Sanjoanense
1 : 1
Beira Mar
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Castro Daire

(Away)
13 Sept
Beira Mar
1 : 1
Castro Daire
22 Aug
Sousense
0 : 1
Castro Daire
16 Aug
Castro Daire
0 : 2
UD Ovarense
31 Aug
Castro Daire
1 : 2
Anadia
16 Apr
Leca
1 : 0
Castro Daire
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Ovarense 4 4 0 0 8:0 12
2 Machico 4 2 2 0 5:2 8
3 Camacha 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
4 Florgrade 4 2 1 1 4:2 7
5 SC Salgueiros 4 1 3 0 4:3 6
6 Sanjoanense 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
7 Uniao Lamas 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
8 Cinfaes 3 1 1 1 4:3 4
9 Castro Daire 3 1 1 1 2:3 4
10 Beira Mar 4 0 3 1 4:6 3
11 FC Alpendorada 4 1 0 3 4:7 3
12 Guarda FC 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
13 Estrela Calheta 2 0 1 1 0:3 1
14 Sousense 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)