Sport Picks

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Bela Vista-TO vs Palmas

Brazil Brazil

Tocantinense 2023
Sun, Mar 12, 2023
3 - 0
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bela Vista-TO play Palmas in the Tocantinense 2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Bela Vista-TO averaged 1.66 goals scored and 1.26 conceded. Palmas averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. In past meetings, Bela Vista-TO won 3, Palmas won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 7, 2026 ended 2:5. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Bela Vista-TO and 1.00 for Palmas. This points to a Palmas double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Bela Vista-TO
40%
Draws
30%
Palmas
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Palmas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / Medium Confidence
  • Bela Vista-TO picked up more points recently compared to Palmas.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Over 3.5 Goals 36%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Bela Vista-TO Clean Sheet 23%
Palmas Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bela Vista-TO Palmas
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 14 10
Draws 8 6
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 1.66 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.26 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.14 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Tocantinense
Palmas vs Bela Vista-TO
2:5
Mar 12, 2023 Tocantinense
Bela Vista-TO vs Palmas
3:0
Mar 5, 2022 Tocantinense
Bela Vista-TO vs Palmas
2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bela Vista-TO 32 / 100
Palmas 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bela Vista-TO Palmas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Palmas or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +36.5%
4.55
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.85
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Bela Vista-TO attacking → ← attacking Palmas

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bela Vista-TO scored in 60% of their last 35 games.

Palmas let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.33 goals.

Bela Vista-TO went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Palmas lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

50 Points in last 5 36
1.14 Goals expected (xG) 2.38
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tocantinopolis743014:115
2Bela Vista-TO73319:412
3Capital FC72419:510
4Gurupi72326:69
5Tocantins74037:109
6Uniao Carmolandense72416:36
7Interporto72145:64
8Palmas70070:210