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Belarus vs Finland - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Illovszky Rudolf Stadion, Budapest
Belarus Logo

Belarus

1 - 0
FT
Finland Logo

Finland

Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Shumansky A.
Assist: Barkovskiy G.
15' Event
Volkov Z.
Penalty Missed
27'
Shumansky A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The UEFA Nations League game between Belarus and Finland finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Belarus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Belarus
30%
Draws
33%
Finland
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Belarus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Finland's 1.33 goals per match outpaces what Belarus have produced (1.13).
  • Win probability leans Belarus's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Belarus Clean Sheet 68%
Finland Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Belarus Finland
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 10
Draws 9 3
Losses 11 17
Goals Scored 1.13 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 6, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Belarus vs Finland
1:0
Sep 29, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Finland vs Belarus
0:0
Jun 9, 2018 Friendly International
Finland vs Belarus
2:0
Jun 11, 2013 World Championship
Belarus vs Finland
1:1
Jun 7, 2013 World Championship
Finland vs Belarus
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Belarus Compare

Top Goalscorer Shumansky A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Finland Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Belarus 68 / 100
Finland 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Belarus Finland

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Belarus Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Finland conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Belarus has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Belarus scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.20 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Belarus VS Finland
1.5 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Belarus

(Home)
06 Oct
Belarus
1 : 0
Finland
03 Oct
Belarus
4 : 0
San Marino
29 Sept
Finland
0 : 0
Belarus
26 Sept
Albania
2 : 0
Belarus
09 Jun
Belarus
2 : 2
Burkina Faso
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Finland

(Away)
06 Oct
Belarus
1 : 0
Finland
03 Oct
Finland
2 : 1
Albania
29 Sept
Finland
0 : 0
Belarus
26 Sept
San Marino
0 : 7
Finland
05 Jun
Hungary
2 : 1
Finland
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Albania 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
2 Belarus 4 2 1 1 5:2 7
3 Finland 4 2 1 1 9:2 7
4 San Marino 4 0 0 4 1:16 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Montenegro 4 3 1 0 7:4 10
2 Cyprus 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
3 Armenia 4 1 1 2 4:5 4
4 Latvia 4 0 1 3 2:6 1
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Slovakia 4 3 1 0 9:2 10
2 Faroe Islands 4 0 4 0 5:5 4
3 Moldova 4 1 1 2 3:8 4
4 Kazakhstan 4 0 2 2 5:7 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Iceland 4 2 2 0 7:1 8
2 Estonia 4 1 3 0 2:1 6
3 Bulgaria 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
4 Luxembourg 4 1 0 3 2:7 3
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)