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Belgium vs France - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League King Baudouin Stadium, Brussels
Belgium Logo

Belgium

0 - 1
FT
France Logo

France

Our Tip

Match Events

42'
Moreira D.
57'
De Bruyne K.
63'
Sub
De Bruyne K. In: Vanaken H.
Out: De Bruyne K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

France in this UEFA Nations League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored France.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Belgium
15%
Draws
53%
France
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: France

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to France lately — more wins on the board than Belgium.
  • Belgium are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and France have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Belgium Clean Sheet 12%
France Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Belgium France
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 15 23
Draws 7 3
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 2.4 2.32
Goals Conceded 1.13 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2026 UEFA Nations League
France vs Belgium
4:1
Sep 28, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Belgium vs France
0:1
Oct 14, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Belgium vs France
1:2
Sep 9, 2024 UEFA Nations League
France vs Belgium
2:0
Jul 1, 2024 Euro
France vs Belgium
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Belgium Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

France Compare

Top Goalscorer Olise M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Belgium 65 / 100
France 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Belgium France

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Belgium Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Belgium scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

France's defensive record shows goals conceded in 58% of 31 matches.

Solid form: Belgium remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Belgium VS France
2 Goals Scored 2.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Belgium

(Home)
05 Oct
France
4 : 1
Belgium
02 Oct
Belgium
3 : 0
Turkey
28 Sept
Belgium
0 : 1
France
25 Sept
Italy
0 : 2
Belgium
10 Jul
Spain
2 : 1
Belgium
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France

(Away)
05 Oct
France
4 : 1
Belgium
02 Oct
France
1 : 1
Italy
28 Sept
Belgium
0 : 1
France
25 Sept
Turkey
0 : 1
France
18 Jul
France
4 : 6
England
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 France 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 8:5 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6:5 6
4 Turkey 4 0 0 4 2:11 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Netherlands 4 2 2 0 7:5 8
2 Greece 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
3 Germany 4 1 2 1 3:2 5
4 Serbia 4 0 0 4 3:8 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain 4 4 0 0 12:5 12
2 England 4 3 0 1 14:3 9
3 Croatia 4 1 0 3 4:14 3
4 Czech Republic 4 0 0 4 2:10 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugal 4 4 0 0 9:4 12
2 Denmark 4 2 0 2 7:7 6
3 Wales 4 1 0 3 2:5 3
4 Norway 4 1 0 3 6:8 3
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)