Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Belgium vs Ukraine

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Cegeka Arena, Genk
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Raskin N.
12'
Zabarnyi I.
29'
Zinchenko O.

AI Match Summary

Belgium in this UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 tie, finishing 3-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Belgium
15%
Draws
40%
Ukraine
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Belgium

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Belgium have won more games recently than Ukraine.
  • Belgium are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Belgium have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Belgium, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 33.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Belgium Clean Sheet 20%
Ukraine Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Belgium Ukraine
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 15 13
Draws 8 6
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 2.43 1.41
Goals Conceded 1 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 2.02 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 23, 2025 UEFA Nations League
Belgium vs Ukraine
3:0
Mar 20, 2025 UEFA Nations League
Ukraine vs Belgium
3:1
Jun 26, 2024 Euro
Ukraine vs Belgium
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Belgium Compare

Top Goalscorer Lukaku R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader De Cuyper M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.55
Avg xA / game 1.01

Ukraine Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Belgium 67 / 100
Ukraine 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Belgium Ukraine

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Belgium Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Belgium found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Ukraine let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.33 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Belgium remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Belgium VS Ukraine
2.75 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.29
88% Over 1.5 71%
38% Over 2.5 43%
38% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Belgium

(Home)
10 Jul
Spain
2 : 1
Belgium
07 Jul
USA
1 : 4
Belgium
01 Jul
Belgium
3 : 2
Senegal
27 Jun
New Zealand
1 : 5
Belgium
21 Jun
Belgium
0 : 0
Iran
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Ukraine

(Away)
07 Jun
Denmark
2 : 1
Ukraine
31 May
Poland
0 : 2
Ukraine
31 Mar
Ukraine
1 : 0
Albania
26 Mar
Ukraine
1 : 3
Sweden
16 Nov
Ukraine
2 : 0
Iceland
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Turkey 6
Hungary 1
Ukraine 3
Belgium 4
Austria 1
Serbia 3
Greece 3
Scotland 1