Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Bella Vista vs Atenas

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division 2023 Estadio José Nasazzi, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

71' Event
Gonzalez C.
87' Event
Chocho I.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Segunda Division 2023 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Bella Vista
35%
Draws
45%
Atenas
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Atenas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Atenas have won more games recently than Bella Vista.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on Atenas taking it.
  • Regular Segunda Division 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Atenas have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Bella Vista Clean Sheet 16%
Atenas Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bella Vista Atenas
Matches Played 30 38
Wins 7 18
Draws 4 10
Losses 19 10
Goals Scored 0.63 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.49
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 29, 2023 Segunda Division
Bella Vista vs Atenas
1:1
Jul 22, 2023 Segunda Division
Atenas vs Bella Vista
1:0
Aug 23, 2019 Segunda Division
Atenas vs Bella Vista
3:0
May 18, 2019 Segunda Division
Bella Vista vs Atenas
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bella Vista Compare

Top Goalscorer Chocho I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Atenas Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bella Vista 10 / 100
Atenas 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bella Vista Atenas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atenas Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Atenas conceded in 66% of 38 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Bella Vista scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Bella Vista has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Atenas
0 Goals Scored 1.88
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Bella Vista

(Home)
09 Sept
Bella Vista
1 : 2
Central Esp.
27 Aug
Bella Vista
1 : 0
Juventud
03 Dec
Juventud
3 : 0
Bella Vista
29 Nov
Bella Vista
1 : 1
Atenas
26 Nov
Rampla Juniors
2 : 0
Bella Vista
Page 1 of 6

Atenas

(Away)
24 Sept
Montevideo City
3 : 3
Atenas
19 Sept
La Luz
0 : 1
Atenas
13 Sept
Atenas
0 : 0
Cerrito
06 Sept
Atenas
3 : 2
River Plate Montevideo
02 Sept
Atenas
2 : 2
Penarol
Page 1 of 8