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Bellinzona vs Aarau

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League 2025/2026 Stadio Comunale Bellinzona, Bellinzona
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Rizvanovic M.
36'
Muller S.
41'
Kury J.

AI Match Summary

The Challenge League 2025/2026 game between Bellinzona and Aarau finished 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Bellinzona
33%
Draws
40%
Aarau
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Aarau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Bellinzona haven't matched Aarau's recent run of results.
  • Aarau are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 96%
Over 1.5 Goals 85.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 58.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 26%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Bellinzona Clean Sheet 10%
Aarau Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bellinzona Aarau
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 13
Draws 4 6
Losses 20 10
Goals Scored 1.17 2.25
Goals Conceded 2.83 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.83 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Challenge League
Bellinzona vs Aarau
0:0
Jan 24, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Bellinzona
1:0
Nov 8, 2025 Challenge League
Bellinzona vs Aarau
5:1
Aug 13, 2025 Challenge League
Aarau vs Bellinzona
1:0
Mar 31, 2025 Challenge League
Bellinzona vs Aarau
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bellinzona 26 / 100
Aarau 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bellinzona Aarau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aarau let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Away concern: Aarau has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Bellinzona's goal record stands at 55% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Bellinzona VS Aarau
1.17 Goals Scored 2.25
2.83 Goals Conceded 1.13
83% Over 1.5 88%
83% Over 2.5 88%
67% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Bellinzona

(Home)
15 May
Etoile-Carouge
2 : 2
Bellinzona
11 May
Bellinzona
2 : 4
Wil
08 May
Lausanne Ouchy
5 : 0
Bellinzona
03 May
Bellinzona
2 : 4
Rapperswil-Jona
26 Apr
Xamax
2 : 1
Bellinzona
Page 1 of 6

Aarau

(Away)
24 Jul
Etoile-Carouge
3 : 0
Aarau
18 Jul
Aarau
2 : 1
Union Berlin
10 Jul
A. Lustenau
1 : 0
Aarau
30 Jun
Aarau
1 : 3
St. Gallen II
21 May
Grasshoppers
2 : 1
Aarau
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vaduz36256575:4181
2Aarau36255677:4780
3Yverdon36207975:4867
4Lausanne Ouchy361481459:5150
5Xamax361471555:5649
6Rapperswil-Jona361422052:6244
7Etoile-Carouge3610101646:5440
8Wil3610101639:5540
9Stade Nyonnais365131833:6028
10Bellinzona36582340:7723
Promotion - Super League (Main)
Promotion - Super League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Promotion League (Main)