Sport Picks

Brazil

Pernambucano 3

Caruaru

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Belo Jardim play Caruaru in the Pernambucano 3. It looks like a close match. Recently, Belo Jardim averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. Caruaru averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.52 conceded. In past meetings, Belo Jardim won 1, Caruaru won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Oct 8, 2024 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Belo Jardim and 1.13 for Caruaru. This points to a Belo Jardim double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%

Belo Jardim

24%

Draws

32%

Caruaru

Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Belo Jardim

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Belo Jardim picked up more points recently compared to Caruaru.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 46%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%

Belo Jardim Clean Sheet 21%

Caruaru Clean Sheet 15%

First Half Goal 74%

Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Belo Jardim	Caruaru
Matches Played	35	31
Wins	11	8
Draws	8	8
Losses	16	15
Goals Scored	1.29	0.9
Goals Conceded	1.43	1.52
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 8, 2024 Pernambucano 3

Belo Jardim vs Caruaru

Possession: 40% - 52% Cards: 3 - 3

1:1

Mar 15, 2023 Pernambucano

Caruaru vs Belo Jardim

Possession: 43% - 52% Cards: 0 - 0

0:4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Belo Jardim 44 / 100

Caruaru 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Belo Jardim Caruaru

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Belo Jardim or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +22.3%

2.78

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15%

2.50

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Belo Jardim attacking → ← attacking Caruaru

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Belo Jardim scored in 66% of their last 35 games.

Caruaru let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Belo Jardim went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Caruaru lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 32

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	America PE	7	6	1	0	18:4	19
2	Caruaru	7	4	2	1	12:7	14
3	Aguia FC	7	3	3	1	12:8	12
4	Belo Jardim	7	3	3	1	11:7	12
5	Pesqueira	7	1	5	1	3:4	8
6	Cha Grande	7	1	1	5	8:14	4
7	1º de Maio	7	1	1	5	6:16	4
8	Sete de Setembro (PE)	7	0	2	5	5:15	2