Sport Picks
Ben Guerdane vs AS Marsa
Tunisia
Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026 7 March Stadium, Ben Guerdane 
Match Events
45'
45'
Oboh D.
46'
46'
Sub
Essadik Y. In: Iffia F.
Out: Essadik Y.
50'
50'
Sub
Adejoh O. In: Mansour H.
Out: Adejoh O.
AI Match Summary
The Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026 game between Ben Guerdane and AS Marsa finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ben Guerdane.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
20%
47%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AS Marsa
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
33%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and AS Marsa come out ahead of Ben Guerdane on wins alone.
- 33% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors AS Marsa here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Ben Guerdane Clean Sheet 68%
AS Marsa Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ben Guerdane | AS Marsa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 12 |
| Draws | 10 | 2 |
| Losses | 11 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 0.62 | 1.07 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.86 | 1.21 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 23, 2026 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Ben Guerdane vs AS Marsa
1:0
Aug 15, 2025 Ligue Professionnelle 1
AS Marsa vs Ben Guerdane
1:0
Jun 14, 2024 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Ben Guerdane vs AS Marsa
1:2
Apr 13, 2024 Ligue Professionnelle 1
AS Marsa vs Ben Guerdane
2:1
Sep 2, 2022 Tunisia Cup
AS Marsa vs Ben Guerdane
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ben Guerdane Compare
Top Goalscorer Oboh D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
AS Marsa Compare
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ben Guerdane 41 / 100
AS Marsa 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ben Guerdane AS Marsa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ben Guerdane Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
AS Marsa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.
H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.
Ben Guerdane has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Ben Guerdane found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (29 games).
Scoring Trends
Ben Guerdane VS AS Marsa
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
25% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Ben Guerdane
(Home) 14 May
Ben Guerdane
0 : 1 Esperance Tunis
08 May
Stade Tunisien
0 : 0 Ben Guerdane
03 May
Ben Guerdane
0 : 1 Soliman
30 Apr
JS Kairouan
0 : 1 Ben Guerdane
25 Apr
Ben Guerdane
2 : 0 Monastir
Page 1 of 6
14 May
Ben Guerdane
0 : 1 Esperance Tunis
03 May
Ben Guerdane
0 : 1 Soliman
25 Apr
Ben Guerdane
2 : 0 Monastir
05 Apr
Ben Guerdane
0 : 0 Metlaoui
08 Mar
Ben Guerdane
0 : 1 Club Africain
Page 1 of 3
AS Marsa
(Away) 08 Aug
Esperance Tunis
1 : 2 AS Marsa
12 May
Jeunesse Sportive
2 : 2 AS Marsa
09 May
AS Marsa
0 : 3 CS Sfaxien
04 May
CA Bizertin
1 : 2 AS Marsa
30 Apr
AS Marsa
1 : 0 Zarzis
Page 1 of 6
08 Aug
Esperance Tunis
1 : 2 AS Marsa
12 May
Jeunesse Sportive
2 : 2 AS Marsa
04 May
CA Bizertin
1 : 2 AS Marsa
25 Apr
Etoile Sahel
1 : 0 AS Marsa
19 Apr
Club Africain
3 : 3 AS Marsa
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Africain | 30 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 43:10 | 66 |
| 2 | Esperance Tunis | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 45:11 | 63 |
| 3 | CS Sfaxien | 30 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 44:13 | 62 |
| 4 | Stade Tunisien | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 28:14 | 48 |
| 5 | Monastir | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 28:19 | 45 |
| 6 | Zarzis | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 30:28 | 41 |
| 7 | Etoile Sahel | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 28:30 | 41 |
| 8 | Metlaoui | 30 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 19:25 | 40 |
| 9 | Jeunesse Sportive | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 24:33 | 36 |
| 10 | Ben Guerdane | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 18:22 | 35 |
| 11 | AS Marsa | 30 | 11 | 2 | 17 | 26:33 | 35 |
| 12 | CA Bizertin | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 18:29 | 33 |
| 13 | Olympique Beja | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 18:39 | 32 |
| 14 | JS Kairouan | 30 | 9 | 4 | 17 | 20:41 | 31 |
| 15 | Soliman | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 15:31 | 27 |
| 16 | AS Gabes | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 11:37 | 18 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2026/2027 (Main)
