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Benfica vs Braga

Portugal Portugal

League Cup 2025/2026 Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Leiria
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Otamendi N.
19' Event
Victor P.
Assist: Zalazar R.
32'
Hornicek L.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-3, with Braga advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Benfica
15%
Draws
39%
Braga
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Benfica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Benfica come out ahead of Braga on wins alone.
  • Model gives Benfica a 46% chance of winning this.
  • Benfica have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Braga, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Benfica Clean Sheet 68%
Braga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Benfica Braga
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 20 16
Draws 6 10
Losses 4 3
Goals Scored 2.67 1.59
Goals Conceded 1 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2026 Liga Portugal
Benfica vs Braga
2:2
Jan 7, 2026 League Cup
Benfica vs Braga
1:3
Dec 28, 2025 Liga Portugal
Braga vs Benfica
2:2
May 17, 2025 Liga Portugal
Braga vs Benfica
1:1
Feb 26, 2025 Taça de Portugal
Benfica vs Braga
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Benfica Compare

Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Braga Compare

Top Goalscorer Victor P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zalazar R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Benfica 95 / 100
Braga 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Benfica Braga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Benfica Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Benfica scored in 100% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Benfica has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Braga's defensive record shows goals conceded in 48% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Benfica VS Braga
3.25 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 50%
88% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Benfica

(Home)
20 Sept
FC Porto
3 : 1
Benfica
16 Sept
AC Milan
0 : 2
Benfica
13 Sept
Benfica
3 : 1
Gil Vicente
09 Sept
Moreirense
0 : 4
Benfica
05 Sept
Maritimo
0 : 3
Benfica
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Braga

(Away)
20 Sept
Santa Clara
0 : 0
Braga
14 Sept
Braga
1 : 0
Estoril
10 Sept
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 1
Braga
05 Sept
Alverca
1 : 2
Braga
31 Aug
Braga
1 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Sporting CP 5
Alverca 1
FC Porto 1
Vitoria Guimaraes 3
Benfica 3
Tondela 0
Braga 5
Santa Clara 0
Semi-finals
Sporting CP 1
Vitoria Guimaraes 2
Benfica 1
Braga 3
Final
Vitoria Guimaraes 2
Braga 1