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Benfica vs Monte Carlo Prediction & H2H Stats

Macao Macao

Elite League 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

83' Event
Lei M.

AI Match Summary

The Elite League 2024 game between Benfica and Monte Carlo finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Benfica.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Benfica
15%
Draws
46%
Monte Carlo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Monte Carlo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Benfica come out ahead of Monte Carlo on wins alone.
  • Model gives Monte Carlo a 46% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Benfica Clean Sheet 10%
Monte Carlo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Benfica Monte Carlo
Matches Played 42 30
Wins 24 15
Draws 4 4
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 3.26 2.3
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2024 Elite League
Benfica vs Monte Carlo
1:0
May 13, 2023 Elite League
Monte Carlo vs Benfica
0:1
Mar 9, 2023 Elite League
Benfica vs Monte Carlo
2:2
Sep 24, 2022 Club Friendly
Monte Carlo vs Benfica
2:0
Sep 3, 2022 Elite League
Benfica vs Monte Carlo
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Benfica Compare

Top Goalscorer Lei M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Monte Carlo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Benfica 22 / 100
Monte Carlo 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Benfica Monte Carlo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Monte Carlo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Benfica scored in 79% of their last 42 games.

Defensive concern: Monte Carlo conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Solid form: Benfica remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Benfica VS -
1.75 Goals Scored 0
2.88 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
88% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Benfica

(Home)
25 Jul
Benfica
4 : 5
Hang Sai
19 Jul
Benfica
10 : 0
University of Macau
10 Jul
Benfica
2 : 4
Shao Jiang
04 Jul
Must IPO
3 : 1
Benfica
28 Jun
Benfica
2 : 1
Chiba
Page 1 of 9

Monte Carlo

(Away)
03 Aug
University of Macau
2 : 1
Monte Carlo
19 Jul
Monte Carlo
1 : 1
Gala
14 Jul
Monte Carlo
2 : 0
Sporting Macau
06 Jul
Monte Carlo
8 : 1
Tak Chun Ka I
22 Jun
Monte Carlo
1 : 2
University of Macau
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Must IPO 9 8 1 0 49:2 25
2 Benfica 9 8 0 1 37:8 24
3 Cheng Fung 9 6 2 1 18:6 20
4 Hang Sai 9 4 1 4 16:22 13
5 Lun Lok 9 4 1 4 20:28 13
6 University of Macau 9 4 1 4 14:18 13
7 Monte Carlo 9 3 1 5 10:15 10
8 Gala 9 2 1 6 17:17 7
9 Tak Chun Ka I 9 1 0 8 10:44 3
10 Sporting Macau 9 0 2 7 8:39 2
Promotion - Elite League 2024 (Championship Group)
Relegation - Elite League 2024 (Relegation Group)