Sport Picks
Benfica vs Moreirense
Portugal
Liga Portugal 2025/2026 Estádio da Luz, Lisbon 
Match Events
2'
2'
Barreiro L.
Assist: Silva A.
26'
26'
Travassos D.
Assist: Ferreira A.
29'
29'
Rios R.
Assist: Barreiro L.
AI Match Summary
Benfica in this Liga Portugal 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Benfica.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
61%
15%
24%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Benfica
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
61%
/ High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Benfica lately — more wins on the board than Moreirense.
- Benfica are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Benfica have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Benfica Clean Sheet 68%
Moreirense Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Benfica | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 28 |
| Wins | 22 | 8 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 3 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 2.71 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.94 | 1.57 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 9, 2026 Liga Portugal
Moreirense vs Benfica
0:4
Apr 25, 2026 Liga Portugal
Benfica vs Moreirense
4:1
Dec 14, 2025 Liga Portugal
Moreirense vs Benfica
0:4
Feb 8, 2025 Liga Portugal
Benfica vs Moreirense
3:2
Aug 30, 2024 Liga Portugal
Moreirense vs Benfica
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Benfica Compare
Top Goalscorer Ivanovic F.
2 Goals Assists Leader Barreiro L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25
Moreirense Compare
Top Goalscorer Travassos D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Benfica 95 / 100
Moreirense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Benfica Moreirense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Benfica Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Benfica scored in 100% of their last 31 outings.
H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.
Benfica went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Moreirense has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.
Scoring Trends
Benfica VS Moreirense
3.38 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Benfica
(Home) 16 Sept
AC Milan
0 : 2 Benfica
13 Sept
Benfica
3 : 1 Gil Vicente
09 Sept
Moreirense
0 : 4 Benfica
05 Sept
Maritimo
0 : 3 Benfica
31 Aug
Benfica
2 : 1 Estoril
Page 1 of 7
13 Sept
Benfica
3 : 1 Gil Vicente
31 Aug
Benfica
2 : 1 Estoril
20 Aug
Benfica
3 : 1 Aarhus
09 Aug
Benfica
2 : 2 Academico Viseu
06 Aug
Benfica
6 : 1 Hearts
Page 1 of 4
Moreirense
(Away) 14 Sept
Moreirense
3 : 1 Maritimo
09 Sept
Moreirense
0 : 4 Benfica
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1 Moreirense
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
16 Aug
Arouca
4 : 0 Moreirense
Page 1 of 6
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1 Moreirense
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
16 Aug
Arouca
4 : 0 Moreirense
25 Jul
Gil Vicente
2 : 2 Moreirense
22 Jul
Santa Clara
2 : 1 Moreirense
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 88 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 80 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 59 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 50 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | 42 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | 42 |
| 10 | Estoril | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | 36 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | 36 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela da Amadora | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | 30 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | 28 |
| 18 | AFS | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | 21 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
