Sport Picks
Match Events
3'
3'
Schjelderup A.
Assist: Prestianni G.
14'
14'
Silva R.
Assist: Prestianni G.
22'
22'
Dahl S.
AI Match Summary
Benfica in this Liga Portugal 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Benfica.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
85%
15%
0%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Benfica
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Benfica lately — more wins on the board than Nacional.
- Win probability leans Benfica's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Liga Portugal 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Benfica here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Benfica Clean Sheet 68%
Nacional Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Benfica | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 20 | 6 |
| Draws | 6 | 6 |
| Losses | 4 | 18 |
| Goals Scored | 2.67 | 0.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.69 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 12, 2026 Liga Portugal
Benfica vs Nacional
2:0
Nov 29, 2025 Liga Portugal
Nacional vs Benfica
1:2
Mar 8, 2025 Liga Portugal
Benfica vs Nacional
3:0
Dec 19, 2024 Liga Portugal
Nacional vs Benfica
0:2
May 11, 2021 Liga Portugal
Nacional vs Benfica
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Benfica Compare
Top Goalscorer Schjelderup A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Silva R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.07
Avg xA / game 1.34
Nacional Compare
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Benfica 95 / 100
Nacional 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Benfica Nacional
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Benfica Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Benfica found the back of the net in 100% of recent matches (30 games).
Away concern: Nacional has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.
Nacional's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.
H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Benfica VS Nacional
3.38 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Benfica
(Home) 20 Sept
FC Porto
3 : 1 Benfica
16 Sept
AC Milan
0 : 2 Benfica
13 Sept
Benfica
3 : 1 Gil Vicente
09 Sept
Moreirense
0 : 4 Benfica
05 Sept
Maritimo
0 : 3 Benfica
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Benfica
3 : 1 Gil Vicente
31 Aug
Benfica
2 : 1 Estoril
20 Aug
Benfica
3 : 1 Aarhus
09 Aug
Benfica
2 : 2 Academico Viseu
06 Aug
Benfica
6 : 1 Hearts
Page 1 of 3
Nacional
(Away) 19 Sept
Nacional
0 : 4 Famalicao
12 Sept
Nacional
1 : 3 Alverca
05 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 0 Nacional
30 Aug
Nacional
2 : 3 Estrela da Amadora
23 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 0 Nacional
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 0 Nacional
23 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 0 Nacional
10 Aug
Santa Clara
2 : 2 Nacional
01 Aug
Maritimo
1 : 0 Nacional
23 Jul
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 0 Nacional
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 88 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 80 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 59 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 50 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | 42 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | 42 |
| 10 | Estoril | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | 36 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | 36 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela da Amadora | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | 30 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | 28 |
| 18 | AFS | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | 21 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
