Sport Picks
Benfica vs Real Madrid
Europe
Champions League 2025/2026 Estádio da Luz, Lisbon 
Match Events
50'
50'
Vinicius Junior
Assist: Mbappe K.
51'
51'
Vinicius Junior
74'
74'
Sub
Silva R. In: Rios R.
Out: Silva R.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 0-1, with Real Madrid advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
49%
15%
36%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Benfica
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
49%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Real Madrid come out ahead of Benfica on wins alone.
- Model gives Benfica a 49% chance of winning this.
- Real Madrid arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Benfica, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Benfica Clean Sheet 15%
Real Madrid Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Benfica | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 20 | 21 |
| Draws | 6 | 3 |
| Losses | 4 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 2.67 | 2.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.94 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 25, 2026 Champions League
Real Madrid vs Benfica
2:1
Feb 17, 2026 Champions League
Benfica vs Real Madrid
0:1
Jan 28, 2026 Champions League
Benfica vs Real Madrid
4:2
Jul 27, 2012 Club Friendly
Benfica vs Real Madrid
5:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Benfica Compare
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97
Real Madrid Compare
Top Goalscorer Vinicius Junior
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Benfica 48 / 100
Real Madrid 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Benfica Real Madrid
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Benfica Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Benfica scored in 100% of their last 30 games.
H2H data points to 4.25 goals as a typical output.
Real Madrid let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.
Benfica went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Benfica VS Real Madrid
3.25 Goals Scored 2.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Benfica
(Home) 20 Sept
FC Porto
3 : 1 Benfica
16 Sept
AC Milan
0 : 2 Benfica
13 Sept
Benfica
3 : 1 Gil Vicente
09 Sept
Moreirense
0 : 4 Benfica
05 Sept
Maritimo
0 : 3 Benfica
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Benfica
3 : 1 Gil Vicente
31 Aug
Benfica
2 : 1 Estoril
20 Aug
Benfica
3 : 1 Aarhus
09 Aug
Benfica
2 : 2 Academico Viseu
06 Aug
Benfica
6 : 1 Hearts
Page 1 of 3
Real Madrid
(Away) 20 Sept
Atl. Madrid
2 : 1 Real Madrid
15 Sept
Elche
2 : 3 Real Madrid
12 Sept
Real Madrid
4 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
08 Sept
Real Madrid
2 : 1 Inter
04 Sept
Betis
1 : 0 Real Madrid
Page 1 of 7
20 Sept
Atl. Madrid
2 : 1 Real Madrid
15 Sept
Elche
2 : 3 Real Madrid
04 Sept
Betis
1 : 0 Real Madrid
22 Aug
Espanyol
1 : 2 Real Madrid
16 Aug
Schalke
0 : 3 Real Madrid
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Monaco 4
PSG 5
Chelsea -
TBD -
Galatasaray 7
Juventus 5
Liverpool -
TBD -
Benfica 1
Real Madrid 3
Manchester City -
TBD -
Dortmund 3
Atalanta 4
Bayern Munich -
TBD -
Qarabag Agdam 3
Newcastle Utd 9
Barcelona -
TBD -
Club Brugge 4
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt 5
Inter 2
Sporting CP -
TBD -
Olympiacos Piraeus 0
Bayer Leverkusen 2
Arsenal -
TBD -
1/8-finals
PSG 8
Chelsea 2
Galatasaray 1
Liverpool 4
Real Madrid 5
Manchester City 1
Atalanta 2
Bayern Munich 10
Newcastle Utd 3
Barcelona 8
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham 5
Bodo/Glimt 3
Sporting CP 5
Bayer Leverkusen 1
Arsenal 3
Quarter-finals
PSG 4
Liverpool 0
Real Madrid 4
Bayern Munich 6
Barcelona 2
Atl. Madrid 3
Sporting CP 0
Arsenal 1
Semi-finals
PSG 6
Bayern Munich 5
Atl. Madrid 1
Arsenal 2
Final
PSG 2
Arsenal 1
